The Inter-American Dialogue is working to provide relevant and informed analysis regarding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic in the Americas. Sign up here to receive our event invitations, reports and weekly newsletter. Our upcoming events on Covid-19, event summaries, articles and Op-Eds, and Q&As from our daily publication, the Latin America Advisor, are gathered below.
Covid-19 in the Americas
How will China’s economic policy affect LAC nations as they navigate the current crisis? As China aims to get its own economy up and running, what is the likelihood of new Chinese finance or investment in the LAC region? Will Covid-19 reshape China’s economic or political relations with the region in notable ways? And what will all of this mean for US-China competition in LAC?
On April 2, the Inter-American Dialogue hosted “Pandemic and Politics in Venezuela”, a conference call with Miguel Pizarro, Feliciano Reyna, and Daniella Liendo. The discussion was moderated by Michael Camilleri, Director of the Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program at The Dialogue.
The recent oil price collapse, combined with the economic contraction resulting from measures to fight the global Covid-19 pandemic, will have extensive and largely unforetold impacts for Latin American energy markets and beyond. These implications include cuts to investment and delays to ongoing projects in both oil & gas and renewable energy, fiscal and broader economic constraints, and legal disputes, said panelists during a webinar held on April 1.
On March 26, the Inter-American Dialogue hosted a conference call with Congresswoman Donna Shalala (D-FL, 27). The discussion centered around the spread of Covid-19 in Latin America & the Caribbean and how the United States can work with international partners to combat the pandemic.
On March 19, the Inter-American Dialogue hosted a conference call with Alicia Bárcena and Santiago Levy. The discussion centered around the consequences of this pandemic for the global economy and the Latin American and Caribbean region in particular.
Articles & Op-Eds
April 2 | Lenier González
Cuba vive el efecto acumulado de la crisis estructural de su modelo sociopolítico y económico –que no fue transformado y no es sostenible de cara al futuro–, más el impacto de nuevos factores externos. La combinación de todo ello acrecentará radicalmente la crisis que vive el país.
April 1 | Catharine Christie | Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program
The actions, or lack thereof, of the presidents of the region’s two biggest countries, Mexico and Brazil, have drawn particular scrutiny, casting a fresh spotlight on populism in Latin America and its particular vulnerabilities in the face of a global pandemic.
March 27 | Lisa Viscidi & Nate Graham | Energy, Climate Change and Extractive Industries Program
The perfect storm of the plummeting oil price and the Covid-19 pandemic could have dire consequences for oil-dependent Latin American economies, lead to a reduction in upstream investment, and damage the prospects for renewable energy projects.
March 24 | Margaret Myers | Director, Asia & Latin America Program
China came to the rescue in Latin America and the Caribbean after the Global Financial Crisis. Can it do so again?
March 23 | Manuel Orozco | Director, Migration, Remittances & Development Program
La pandemia causada por el Covid-19 está creando estragos y consecuencias económicas en todo el mundo. En 2020, se proyecta caída de -5 por ciento de las remesas en Nicaragua, recibiendo $75 millones menos, con una caída mayor del turismo, la economía caerá en -2 por ciento.
March 20 | Manuel Orozco | Director, Migration, Remittances & Development Program
Past events involving worldwide crises can offer insight as to how this pandemic will likely affect remittance transfers. Considering migrants’ financial and health vulnerabilities as well as the forecast recession, a conservative estimate shows that remittances will register a -3 percent decline in 2020 relative to 2019, from $77 billion to $75 billion.
From the Latin America Advisor
March 27 | Alicia Bárcena, Shelly Shetty, Claudio Loser, Eric Parrado
What do the best-case and worst-case economic scenarios look like for Latin America and the Caribbean, and will the region suffer a U-shaped recession or a V-shaped one? How deep will the recession be, and which countries face the most economic pain? With already high debt-to-GDP ratios, who will countries borrow from to fund their deficit spending, and how can they target economic packages to most effectively preserve jobs?
March 25 | Tinglong Dai, Margaret Myers, Antonio Ortiz-Mena
To what extent has the Covid-19 outbreak in China interrupted global supply chains, and how much have countries in Latin America and the Caribbean been affected? What lessons can be drawn from the economic effects of the pandemic, and will they prompt long-term changes in the way businesses, supply chains and trade relations are modeled?
March 24 | Daniela Chacón Arias, Vicente Albornoz, César Coronel Jones, Abelardo Pachano
How vulnerable is Ecuador to those two threats to its economy? Will Moreno face legislative pushback to his plan? Will social unrest flare up? Is Moreno taking the right actions in light of the developments, and what more should he be doing?
March 23 | Anton Edmunds, Vangie Bhagoo-Ramrattan, Andrea Ewart, Rogelio Douglas
How big of an impact will Covid-19 have on tourism in the Caribbean, and which countries face the most severe effects? What should government officials in the Caribbean do to prepare their countries and mitigate the consequences? How well are tourism-related businesses, such as cruise lines and hotels, handling the situation?
March 17 | Andrés Rozental, María L. Ávila-Agüero, Katherine Bliss, Alejandro Chafuen, Adriano Massuda
How are Latin American and Caribbean nations coping with the spread of the new coronavirus? Which practices are working best, and where have gaps been identified? Are the region’s health care systems robust enough to effectively address the pandemic, and what steps should the region’s public and private health care providers be taking next?
March 11 | Jorge Heine, John Price, Mariano Machado
What have been the major consequences of coronavirus fears on the prices of metals, including copper and gold? Will such trends continue into the foreseeable future? What will be the economic fallout for Latin American metals exporters, such as Brazil, Chile, Peru and Colombia, and what can they do to prepare for potential losses?
Feb 11 | Fiona Mackie, Margaret Myers, Peter Sand, Zhen Pan
How serious is the risk of the coronavirus spreading to Latin America and the Caribbean? What will be the disease’s global economic fallout, and how will such trends affect Latin American and Caribbean economies? Which sectors in the region could be hurt the most, and which industries might benefi t from the trade disruptions?
Press & Media
Mar 23 | Manuel Orozco
Manuel Orozco explica el impacto económico de la panedemia de Covid-19 para los migrantes latinoamericanos en Estados Unidos, sus familias que reciben remesas y para los países de la región. Su análisis se concentra en los impactos relacionados a la crisis de desempleo proyectada para el país.
“Most of the region’s leaders were already in serious trouble, with slowing economies, social pressures and protests forcing them to look inward. With borders closing everywhere, the coronavirus has only accentuated that instinct.”Michael Shifter, Bloomberg (March 25, 2020)
From our Members
Apr 6 | María Luisa Romero | CEJIL
Apr 6 | Kevin Casas Zamora | The New York Times
Apr 2 | Sergio Bitar | Cooperativa
Apr 2 | Monica de Bolle | AQ Podcast
Apr 2 | Valeria Luiselli | AP News | En Español
Apr 1 | Shannon K. O’Neil | Foreign Affairs
Apr 1 | Arturo Sarukhan | El Universal
Apr 1 | Monica de Bolle | YouTube
Mar 31 | Alfonso Prat-Gay | Financial Times
Mar 31 | James Stavridis | Bloomberg
Mar 31 | Roberto Teixeira da Costa | O Estadão de S. Paulo
Mar 31 | Nora Lustig | CGDev | En Español
Mar 31 | Santiago Levy | UNDP | En Español
Mar 30 | Francis Fukuyama | The Atlantic
Mar 29 | Moisés Naím | El Tiempo
Mar 29 | Paula Moreno | El Tiempo
Mar 28 | Julio Frenk | El Universal