Who Is Best Placed to Win Canada’s October Election?
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sept. 11 called for a federal election to be held on Oct. 21. Trudeau, who has been facing an ethics scandal in recent months, is seeking his second term in office. Opinion polls show both the prime minister and his main rival, Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer, with just over 30 percent support each. How likely is Trudeau to be re-elected in October, and what platforms are other candidates running on? What factors are most shaping the race? What is at stake for Latin America and the Caribbean if there is a change in government, including on issues such as Venezuela’s political crisis and the United States-Mexico-Canada, or USMCA, trade deal?
Maureen Boyd, fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and director of the Carleton Initiative for Parliamentary and Diplomatic Engagement: “Canadian elections are volatile with unpredictable outcomes. In 2015, the Trudeau Liberals started in third place and ended up with a majority government. The Liberals are campaigning on their record on environmental and economic issues. The Conservatives will focus on the economy and ethical lapses of the Liberals. The New Democratic Party platform advocates increasing social benefits, and the Green Party will campaign on stopping climate change. The campaign matters, particularly the last days. Voters will pay attention to the leaders’ debate on Oct. 7 two weeks before the election. The leaders will talk about foreign policy, but it won’t decide the election. While the Conservatives say they would deal better with China and the United States, no one expects there would be substantive policy differences. The focus of the Trudeau government’s efforts in the Americas has been on the renegotiation of NAFTA and now the U.S. Congress’ required ratification of USMCA. Minister Freeland has also…”Read More
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