Analysis

¿Hacia dónde lleva Ortega a Nicaragua?

La apuesta de Ortega para ganar se basa en su creencia de que tiene una ventaja en este momento siempre y cuando actúe en seis frentes: la represión política y económica, el acomodamiento económico del sector privado, la división y censura de la oposición, una comunidad internacional poco activa, y la protección a su círculo de poder.

Manuel Orozco

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Confidencial

Do the Amazon Fires Point the Way for Future International Efforts to Combat Climate Change?

The fires in the Amazon expose the very heart of the greatest collective action problem that humanity has faced, and it foreshadows harder battles to come. The actions of each individual country have consequences for the global climate, yet perpetrators are loath to make sacrifices when others, especially those with equal or greater responsibility, are not doing the same. The fact that threats of economic punishment seem to have shifted Brazil’s behavior suggests that a similar approach could be taken to address climate change on a larger scale. But it will not be easy, especially where the biggest emitters are concerned.

Lisa Viscidi, Nate Graham

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Foreign Policy

Plan B in Venezuela

The United States must now reassess its approach. Washington shouldn’t give up its sustained focus on the crisis or its stated objective of restoring democracy and constitutional order, but it does have to accept the facts on the ground and recognize that maximalist demands are unhelpful.

Michael Camilleri

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Foreign Affairs

Geopolítica de la crisis venezolana

Ante el bloqueo doméstico y externo de la crisis en Venezuela, Europa podría desempeñar un papel crucial gracias a su relativa distancia del conflicto y buena imagen en la región.

Bruno Binetti

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Política Exterior

Jair Bolsonaro, A View from the North

Rather than building a robust partnership with the United States, Bolsonaro’s current trajectory may end up with Brazil facing a largely indifferent Washington. Yes, Trump did declare this week that he wants a free trade deal with Brazil, but even if Brazil can find a way around Mercosur’s rules and begin to pursue a bilateral accord, negotiations will take several years to complete. A successful outcome is not out of the question, but it will require to thoroughly overhaul its highly protected economy, which is among the most insular in the world.

Peter Hakim

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Veja

Are China and Panama Getting It Right?

Best outcomes for Panama, whether in its relations with China or other economic partners, will depend on the country’s commitment to open and equitable procurement processes and effective project monitoring and evaluation.

Margaret Myers

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Latin Trade

How to Save the Amazon Rainforest

Countries in the Amazon Basin are falling behind on their targets to cut deforestation. Environmental enforcement combined with economic incentives could provide a way forward, write Lisa Viscidi and Enrique Ortiz in this op-ed.

Lisa Viscidi, Enrique Ortiz

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ The New York Times

China’s Agro-Industrial Interests in Latin America

The China-Latin America agro-industrial relationship has been growing, and at a notable pace, prompted in large part by China’s evolving food security strategy

Margaret Myers

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Agri-Pulse

Brazil’s Energy Sector Needs Reform. Is Bolsonaro Up to the Task?

Revitalizing Brazil’s energy sector will be key to Jair Bolsonaro’s success as president – but so far, he’s had mixed results when it comes to getting reforms through Congress. Unless Bolsonaro learns to work with legislators and ease turbulence within his government, Brazil’s missing energy reforms will continue to threaten its economy, and its politics.

Lisa Viscidi, Nate Graham

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Americas Quarterly

A Critical Moment in Venezuela

In January, the surprising emergence of Juan Guaidó as the opposition’s leader was followed by months of frenetic activity on the Venezuela crisis. Today there seems to be a pause in the high drama. It is in this context that former Chilean president, Michelle Bachelet, now the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, is making a three-day visit to Venezuela. Although it is hard to predict the final result of the visit, there is little doubt that both sides of this tragic and protracted stalemate will seek to take maximum political advantage.

Michael Shifter

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ La Tercera

En busca de una estrategia de inserción internacional para América Latina

Lo mejor que pueden hacer los actores políticos y sociales latinoamericanos es concebir una estrategia de inserción internacional en la que sus países sean actores y no simples receptores pasivos de oportunidades y amenazas generadas desde el exterior.

Michael Shifter, Bruno Binetti

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Revista Pensamiento Iberoamericano

In the Crossfire: Latin America and U.S.-China Competition

A protracted trade war is expected to have lasting effects on the region’s economies. The IMF estimates slowing global growth in 2019, including in third markets, based on large part US-China trade tensions. Ongoing economic uncertainty could also weaken Latin American currencies if populations there invest in US dollars to avoid the effects of local currency devaluation.

Margaret Myers

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Latin Trade