Analysis

Fact Sheet: Family Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean in 2018

Family remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean experienced nearly 10% growth in 2018, one of the largest growth rates in the past 10 years. Growth in remittances stands in stark contrast to the sluggish 1.9% economic growth rate for the region. The countries with the highest remittance growth rates in 2018 included Haiti, Colombia, Brazil, Guatemala and Paraguay.

Manuel Orozco

Articles & Op-Eds ˙

Reviving Venezuela’s Oil Industry Is Easier Said Than Done

Even if Juan Guaido or another opposition figure finally takes the reins and starts fixing the oil sector in Venezuela, it will take years before oil exports can provide the economic boost needed to pull the nation out of the morass. Venezuela’s oil industry has been severely damaged, and there are questions about the long-term economic viability of its oil fields. Venezuelans will likely be disappointed with the pace of the economic turnaround under any new government—a risk that poses a real threat to political stability. Expectations ought to be tempered.

Lisa Viscidi, Nate Graham

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ World Politics Review

Venezuela, 20 years after Chávez

February 2nd marks two decades since Hugo Chavez first assumed the presidency of Venezuela. Today, the Bolivarian Revolution that Chavez led until his death in 2013 is at its most critical moment: the economy is in ruins, three million Venezuelans have emigrated in recent years, and his successor, Nicolás Maduro, rules as a dictator while Juan Guaidó took the oath as interim president with the support of the international community. 

Michael Shifter, Bruno Binetti

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ New York Times Español

The Monroe Doctrine may be dead in Latin America, but its ghost still haunts the White House

This is a critical moment in the Venezuela crisis – hopeful yet uncertain. Moving forward, senior Trump administration officials would be wise to devote more time with their Latin American counterparts, issuing joint statements and coordinating actions to pressure the regime and advance Mr. Guaido’s efforts at reconciliation. Posturing about the U.S.’s power and influence in Venezuela evokes a 19th-century doctrine that has long been irrelevant and is counterproductive.

Michael Shifter

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ The Globe and Mail

El espejismo antipartidario

Nayib Bukele lidera ampliamente las encuestas para la elección presidencial en El Salvador, que tendrá lugar en pocos días. Su gran activo ha sido el rechazo generalizado de la ciudadanía a los dos partidos que gobiernan el país desde hace un cuarto de siglo. La debilidad de los partidos es uno de los problemas más serios de la democracia en América Latina. Negarse a enfrentarlo es resignarse a tener una política balcanizada, volátil, caudillista y, por ello mismo, machista.

Kevin Casas-Zamora

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ New York Times Español

Venezuela on the Brink

Michael Camilleri discusses the many implications of Juan Guaidó’s rise to power in Venezuela.

Michael Camilleri

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ La Nación

Can Venezuela Have a Peaceful Transition?

The country’s opposition has gained new momentum, but it’s the military that will decide the fate of Nicolás Maduro’s presidency.

Michael Shifter

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ The New York Times

The Path to Stability in Venezuela is Narrow Indeed

Juan Guaidó’s proclamation that he is interim president of Venezuela, which has won the full support of the United States and other countries, opens a new phase in the long crisis of that Latin American nation. For the first time in years, dictator Nicolás Maduro is on the defensive, and Venezuelans are hopeful that change is possible. But it would be naïve to think this means the end of the chavista regime.

Bruno Binetti

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ New York Daily News

Nicaragua in 2019: Time for Change?

Six trends and one consideration regarding political change for a regime that is unsustainable over the long term.

Manuel Orozco

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Confidencial

Who will save Brazil’s democracy if Jair Bolsonaro tries to destroy it?

Bolsonaro’s authoritarian rhetoric was hotly debated during the presidential campaign. His supporters embraced his brash promises to bring law and order to a country beset by crime, corruption and economic struggles. His opponents feared a resurgence of military rule or the emergence of a Duterte-style police state.

Michael Camilleri, Benjamin Gedan

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Miami Herald

Brazil Was a Global Leader on Climate Change. Now It’s a Threat.

Brazil should build on its impressive efforts in renewable energy, clean transport, and deforestation reduction. But as President Jair Bolsonaro assumes power, one of the world’s largest economies is on the verge of relinquishing its role as an environmental leader and retreating from the fight against climate change.

Lisa Viscidi, Nate Graham

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Foreign Policy

The United States and Mexico: Partnership Tested

Few neighbors have such deep and wide-ranging ties as the United States and Mexico. Both countries are bound not only by geography, but also through economic, security and social connections. Despite these strong connections—or perhaps because of them—the bilateral relationship is subject to strong pressures coming from domestic politics in both countries.

Michael Shifter, Bruno Binetti

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Great Decisions