Among the candidates vying to the next president of Ecuador is Luisa González, the candidate backed by former President Rafael Correa. // File Photo: Facebook Page of Luisa González.

Ecuador’s National Electoral Council on May 22 said it was scheduling early presidential and legislative elections for Aug. 20, with a runoff in October should there be no clear winner. The snap elections were scheduled after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly last month in a move that also shortened his own term. Which candidates are likely to run in the election, and what kind of president does the country need to attain stability? What might the makeup of the National Assembly look like?

Will Freeman, fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations: “Luisa González, a little-known ex-lawmaker, is the candidate backed by ex-President Rafael Correa. An unconditional Correa ally seemingly chosen for her loyalty, González shares Correa’s economic leftism and social conservatism, and she supports plans to rewrite the constitution. But holding the presidency for just one year may not be all that tempting for a party that knows how to play the long game. Correismo will focus more energy on retaining control of the National Assembly, which it needs to achieve its number-one goal: removing Attorney General Diana Salazar and clear its leaders’ judicial records. Yaku Pérez, an Indigenous environmental activist who finished third in the last presidential race, represents a new Green left opposed to Lasso’s small government conservatism and Correa’s illiberal populism. But he may struggle to match his past performance now that Ecuadoreans are more focused on crime than the legacies of the Correa years. Fernando Villavicencio—a centrist ex-lawmaker and anti-corruption advocate—will vie for the anti-Correista vote, but his reputation as a Lasso ally could hurt him. On the right, there is Jan Topic—a businessman and former foreign fighter—who talks tough on crime but faces an investigation over Odebrecht corruption, and the more moderate ex-Vice President and businessman Otto Sonnenholzner. No conservative candidate will have it easy, given Lasso’s unpopularity. The bottom line? Voters are fed up with fighting between Correistas and anti-Correistas and need a solution to spiraling crime. Whoever can offer that has a path to the presidency.”

José Hidalgo, director general of CORDES: “Among the candidates who seem to have best chances in Ecuador’s next presidential election are: a left-wing populist with an authoritarian tendency, a more conciliatory left-wing candidate who has radical ideas on environmental issues, a right-wing populist who emphasizes the fight against insecurity (the main concern for Ecuadoreans today) and other more centrist candidates who seek to appear pragmatic. Within this variety of options, Ecuador must find the one most capable of facing the country’s multiple problems, including insecurity and fiscal disorder. Since my field of analysis is economics, I will focus on that. The next government will inherit a fiscal deficit that could exceed 4 percent of GDP. Ecuador has few financing sources to cover this deficit, so the new government should promote reforms that allow it to increase the permanent income of the state budget (mainly taxes) or reduce spending (by eliminating fuel subsidies or reducing transfers to provincial governments). Unfortunately, it is very likely that the next National Assembly will have a composition similar to the one that President Lasso dissolved, which implies, for a president who wants to be fiscally responsible, an almost certain opposition majority (changes in subsidies do not require legislative approval, though they would generate social protests). In this context, the next president, in addition to being fiscally responsible, should be able to reach consensus with opposition parties (as long as those parties are willing to reach agreements to benefit the country and are not solely concerned about their own interests). Unfortunately, recent experience does not give us much hope of that happening.”

Juan José Mantilla Sandoval and Gabriel Santelices Fierro, both legal directors at Dentons Paz Horowitz: “To date, Fernando Villavicencio and Jan Topic have confirmed their pre-candidacy for the presidency of Ecuador. Others include the right-wing’s Otto Sonnenholzner and Henry Cucalón and the left wings Leonidas Iza, Carlos Rabascall, Andrés Arauz, Yaku Pérez and Salvador Quishpe. Meanwhile, the only candidate registered with the National Electoral Council is Daniel Noboa Azin. We believe that the next president of Ecuador—who will govern until May 2025—should be a center-right candidate with experience in politics and who has the approval of Indigenous leaders. The current president is unable to negotiate with the legislative branch to approve laws, prevent violent demonstrations of Indigenous groups, control crime or fulfill his government agenda. The main challenge for the next president will be to guarantee legal and political stability that gives confidence to foreign investments. The current president’s party has announced that it will not have legislative candidates, which can benefit left-wing populist political parties such as UNES (led by former President Rafael Correa) and the Indigenist Pachakutik party. These political parties will surely lead in elected candidates for the National Assembly. It is likely that right-wing parties (Partido Social Cristiano, Avanza and SUMA) will individually have fewer elected candidates to the National Assembly, so their success and influence will depend on their ability to arrange coalitions to counter the opposition.” 

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