The Drop in Popularity and Support for Daniel Ortega among the FSLN

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Photo of Nicaraguan flag with flags from the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) party infobae / Reuters / Oswaldo Rivas

In the eyes of the population, the Daniel Ortega's unpopularity and illegitimacy is unquestionable — including the limited minority that supports his tarnished party — that now hovers around 15 percent of the population. Moreover, a large part of this Sandinista base neither believes in Daniel Ortega nor wants him as their leader.

The most recent CID Gallup polling in June 2023, sponsored by Confidencial, showed new data on the Sandinistas' opinion of the dictator and it warrants analysis.

There is no cohesion within this political base, but rather clear signals of dissent and inconformity.

The 15 percent that supports the Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) is not entirely on the dictator's side.

According to the poll, 35 percent of these Sandinistas disapprove of the Daniel Ortega's government which means that one in 10 Nicaraguans (10 percent of the population) is "ortegista" and 5.5 percent of Sandinistas are no longer "ortegista."

This trend shows that there is a critical mass within the regime comprised of "silent dissidents" — people who want to escape the system and wish to see a change. This signifies a weakness inside the circle of power, and is a key signal of the conditions needed to push for a political transition.


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