Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro was seriously wounded in a knife attack. // Photo: @FlavioBolsonaro.

Following a decision from Brazil’s electoral court barring him from the presidential race, jailed former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Tuesday dropped out of the race and endorsed former São Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad as the candidate of the leftist Workers’ Party. Haddad, as well as Geraldo Alckmin of the right-of-center PSDB, are both accused of campaign funding violations, allegations that both candidates deny. Also this month, right-wing presidential front-runner Jair Bolsonaro was seriously injured in a knife attack during a campaign event. How will the attack against Bolsonaro change the race? How do the legal developments affect the presidential race? Will Lula’s support transfer to Haddad? What factors between now and election day will decide the election?

Jana Nelson, former Brazil desk officer at the U.S. Department of State: “Brazil is entering a new phase in the presidential campaign, marked by corruption accusations and violence. The 13 presidential candidates are now final, no more last-minute bench substitutions. The latest polls take into account Jair Bolsonaro’s stabbing and, surprisingly, show that Brazilians have less sympathy for the victim than one would have expected. The four candidates behind the front-runner are tied, and the race now, as it has been from the start, is for second place. The question all non-Bolsonaro voters are asking themselves is: who will galvanize most votes to beat him in the second round? Neither Alckmin nor Haddad’s corruption accusations seem to be a factor in a country where almost all politicians are under investigation. Although it is still a tad too early to tell by how much, it seems that Lula’s popularity has transferred a bit to Haddad—his replacement on the ballot—and to Ciro Gomes, another leftist candidate. More importantly perhaps, the undecided and protest voters are starting to migrate to a defined candidate. The last two polls, Datafolha and Ibope, have shown markedly different results for the second round, meaning they are still not reliable enough. Haddad fares worst in the polls against Bolsonaro, and it is not unfathomable that center-right voters, who would normally never vote for Bolsonaro, would prefer him over another PT government. Alckmin, Marina and Ciro are all flawed candidates, each in their own way, leaving Brazilians to play eeny, meeny, miny, moe on the ballot on Oct. 7.”

Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue: “Next month’s presidential election is Brazil’s most bewildering since democratic rule was restored in 1985. What we know is that Lula, who has headed every poll this year, will not be on the ballot. The front-runner is right-wing extremist Jair Bolsonaro, recently hospitalized with life-threatening wounds from a knife attack. Though polling at around 24 percent—double his nearest rival—Bolsonaro will not win the presidency in the first round of voting, but will surely have a place in the runoff election. What we don’t know is whether the attack will give Bolsonaro a significant electoral boost, either from the sympathy and unexpected publicity it has generated for him, or from generalized anger at Brazil’s escalating violence. Still, his sky-high disapproval ratings suggest he will not command a large sympathy vote—and the added publicity may be irrelevant in the runoff phase, where he trails likely opponents. Also unknown is whether Lula can transfer his popularity to his stand-in, Fernando Haddad. The evidence is mixed, but legal prohibitions on Lula’s campaigning will surely limit his electoral influence. Other potential competitors, former Ceará Governor Ciro Gomes or Marina Silva, a former minister and presidential candidate, are campaigning with weak political bases, high negatives among voters and limited access to strictly regulated television time. Among the candidates realistically contending for the second round, Geraldo Alckmin has the weakest poll numbers, but it is early to count him out. He has a strong political base and the lion’s share of available television time, and he may yet win over São Paulo voters who elected him governor by a landslide four years ago. Polls indicate Bolsonaro is likely to lose the runoff election to almost any of the candidates who can make it that far. But it would be a mistake to underestimate his appeal in today’s Brazil.”

Monica de Bolle, director of Latin American studies and emerging markets specialization at Johns Hopkins University and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute: “The recent knife attack against Jair Bolsonaro is likely to boost his visibility as the press focuses intensely on his recovery. According to Brazilian electoral laws, which allot time for mandatory TV campaigns, Bolsonaro had only a few seconds on air, which many believed could potentially have been his undoing—he is the front-runner in the polls under scenarios that discard former President Lula’s bid. With the violent incident last week, this has now changed dramatically as Bolsonaro is getting ample TV coverage. Campaign funding charges brought against Fernando Haddad and Geraldo Alckmin are likely to do some damage to their bids. Alckmin appears to have reached a limit of 8 percent of voter intentions, according to the latest polls, while Haddad faces the challenge of securing the Lula vote while being a relatively unknown figure nationally—he also stands at 8 percent in the polls. Although Haddad has better chances to rise in the polls than Alckmin over the next few weeks, the recent charges may limit vote transferability. Meanwhile, center-left candidate Ciro Gomes, who is positioning himself as the anti-Bolsonaro and faces no legal issues, appears to be gaining traction. While the outcome of the first round is still difficult to predict, it is likely that Bolsonaro will have enough votes to make it to the runoff. The key factor to watch is the race between Haddad and Gomes, especially since the latter has greater name recognition and an all-important foothold in Brazil’s northeast.”

Erich Decat, political analyst at XP Investimentos: “The Brazilian election is completely undefined. Historically, most Brazilian voters start to pay more attention just 15 days before election day. According to the last XP poll, the percentage of blank/null votes, considering the margin of error, equals the share of votes for front-runner Jair Bolsonaro. The candidate who matches his or her economic policies to voters’ lives in the last days before the election might reach the second round. In general, voters support candidates who offer them ways to improve their lives. The economy is still a key point and can even be used to overcome some extremist ideas that are not related to voters’ welfare. To some extent, electoral TV programs will be strategic and can have a huge influence on the result—they are still the main source of influence on the Brazilian electorate. The PT’s strategy to stick with Lula until the very end has kept the former president’s image alive in voters’ minds. In this context, in case of a PT defeat, the setback can also be considered Lula’s debacle. Is the attack against Bolsonaro enough to make him president? No. But, in tactical terms, it might give him significant relief when he needs it most. Bolsonaro was facing his worst moment: without a competitive campaign, he lost firepower and started to play defense. The other candidates were starting to use their powerful platforms to water down the front-runner, and it was starting to bear fruit: Bolsonaro’s rejection rates were clearly on the rise, and he was starting to virtually lose to all the other candidates in a runoff scenario. Now, inevitably, the political attacks will have to be suspended to respect the difficult time that the candidate is facing and to avoid backfire from public opinion. Having the opportunity for repositioning in the middle of a political campaign is a powerful card. All eyes are on how Bolsonaro will use this upper hand.”

Mauricio Santoro, head of the department of international relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro: “Jair Bolsonaro is leading in the latest polls with 24 percent, and four candidates are technically tied in second place (Ciro Gomes, Fernando Haddad, Geraldo Alckmin and Marina Silva) with 9-13 percent of support. The Brazilian political system is in tatters, with all major parties tarnished by corruption scandals. Bolsonaro consolidated himself as the voice for angry voters, with an anti-establishment rhetoric that will lead him to the second round. He will probably face a left-wing rival in the second round—Ciro and Haddad are the top contenders for Lula’s social and economic legacy, with a political discourse critical of the austerity policies of recent years. Marina represents a more centrist approach, and Alckmin is a conservative option, weakened by Bolsonaro’s rise. They are having a difficult time in a campaign that is more and more polarized in a right-left framework. Bolsonaro has the biggest rejection rate of all candidates at 43 percent. Many voters are appalled by his radical remarks. Whoever reaches the second round with him has good chances of winning. The hardest fight of the coming weeks will be among the leftist candidates—Ciro, Haddad and perhaps Marina—for that spot.”

The Latin America Advisor features Q&A with leaders in politics, economics, and finance every business day. The publication is available to members of the Dialogue's Corporate Program and others by subscription.