Press Mentions

Trump has seemingly lost some interest in Venezuela since last January. He was led to believe that Maduro's fall was imminent. Trump's aggressive rhetoric against Maduro will continue, [but only to galvanize support from Venezuelan and Cuban exiles in Florida opposed to the radical leftist regimes in their homelands.]

Some countries are approaching China with eyes wide open. They don’t want to repeat Sri Lanka´s predicament, where China’s involvement is seen as putting national autonomy is at stake.

Trump's decisions about what to do about Venezuela, will be the crucial element in 2020.

I would guess Maduro keeps hold of the government with the support of the military, while Guaido heads an opposition that remains divided on issues and strategy.

Se produce un temor en la población centroamericana de que la reunificación familiar no va a ser posible, entonces la gente empieza a salir en mayor número. Las caravanas aumentan a principios de 2018, pero sí son un fenómeno que tiene más de 10 años de existir, solo que eran (conformadas por) cantidades menores de personas.

There are three motives behind Trump's aggressive policy [towards Cuba]: Florida, where the votes of exiled Cubans could be decisive in the 2020 election, a "Cold War mentality" that seeks revenge for 60 years of Cuban socialism, and Havana's persistent support for Venezuela's socialist leader Nicolas Maduro. But the Cubans have their responsibility because they lost an opportunity when Obama opened up. Instead they hardened their position, they closed more, they became more repressive because they felt threatened.

El enfoque de mano dura [de Trump en su discurso hacia Cuba] funciona bien con muchos cubanoestadounidenses, un grupo de votantes muy influyente en la política de Florida.

Se distinguen três razões por trás da política agressiva de Donald Trump: Flórida, terra de exilados cubanos cortejada por ser decisiva para as eleições de 2020; uma "mentalidade de Guerra Fria" que busca vingança após 60 anos de socialismo em Cuba; e o apoio da ilha à Venezuela de Nicolás Maduro. Mas os cubanos têm uma parte de responsabilidade porque perderam a oportunidade da abertura com Obama. Pelo contrário, os mais conservadores em Cuba endureceram sua posição, fecharam-se mais, ficaram mais apreensivos porque se sentiram ameaçados.

Sanctions have created problems for the government but are also hurting the Venezuelan population which is already deep in pervasive poverty, hunger, lack of medicine, etc. I think the point is that you have to wait this one out and watch how this really evolves. You can’t press it very hard because it’s just going to make it worse for ordinary Venezuelans.

My own sense is that this pressure on Venezuela is also a very strong effort to change the government of Cuba. This does not simply have to do with Venezuela, and this, of course, is involved with the reelection campaign. Cubans in Florida and the increasing Venezuelan population in Florida can be important factors in the 2020 election.

Trump and his ideologically-determined national security counselors are pushing Cuba into the arms of China and Russia. Simultaneously, Trump’s Cuba strategy expands the danger of a humanitarian emergency. 

The Chinese consumer is driving so much in the emergence of new industries across the globe. This is not just the case in soy production and in agriculture but really across the board.

Stronger economies tend to be those that are diversified. And [in Brazil], increasingly, there's this reliance on soy in particular, but also other primary commodities. It is seen as a problematic feature of the Brazilian economy.

Todo el mundo habla de Ucrania como ejemplo de anteponer el interés personal al interés nacional, pero no es una sorpresa. México es un ejemplo clarísimo de eso. Las cosas que hace Trump, los términos que emplea, están dirigidos a responder a los temores de sus bases políticas y a fortalecer su causa. Ucrania no es un caso aislado. Trump utiliza a México claramente para sus objetivos políticos personales.

É um ressentimento generalizado contra quem detém serviços. Essas pessoas querem mais direitos e, muitas vezes, são questões difíceis de quantificar, como o acesso à Justiça e a serviços públicos de qualidade. Em paralelo, as bolhas e a disseminação de notícias falsas aumentam a radicalização política. As pessoas estão com muita raiva, em um nível poucas vezes visto. Além disso, parecem dispostas a tolerar um alto grau de violência.