Press Mentions

I talked recently, a week or so ago, to four or five Latin American advisors, and they’re all very pessimistic [about Maduro's downfall in Venezuela]. It got me depressed. And I’m not exactly Mr. Optimism.

This is classic Trump. The same thing happened with the wall. Once Congress appropriates money and it becomes law, the President doesn’t get to just do whatever he wants with it.

The highest levels of Venezuela's military are essentially sustaining Maduro's hold on power. The Trump administration should focus on that challenge, not by issuing threats and ultimatums to the generals, which hasn't worked, but rather by trying to arrange and facilitate serious negotiations to strike a deal that would pave the way for a democratic transition. It's certain to be a complicated, difficult task, but without it, it is hard to have much confidence that the crisis can be resolved.

The Russians are seeking to project power close to the U.S., as they have done in the past, and also show solidarity and support for the Maduro regime. The U.S. knows that Russia can give Maduro some oxygen and breathing space but lacks the capacity or will to save Venezuela. But should Washington eventually pursue a military option in Venezuela, the Russians would not be prepared to protect Maduro.

Ex-presidentes, CEOs e ministros foram para a cadeia, enquanto em outros, as investigações não avançaram [...] Os sistemas judiciais que tiveram maior sucesso são caracterizados por independência do Ministério Público, capacidade técnica, uso de instrumentos como delação premiada, apoio da sociedade civil e imprensa independente. 

I think it’s very difficult to understand U.S.-Venezuela policy without understanding Cuba and the half-century drive to change the regime in Havana. Their calculation is that change in Venezuela will effect change in Cuba.

Many of these leaders that are pushing for the Prosur initiative criticized UNASUR for being a politicized institution that responded to the interests of left-wing leaders such as Hugo Chavez or Lula in Brazil […] I think they are doing the exact same thing with Prosur. How would this institution survive after the incumbents leave office? That is the key question. If we are going to create new institutions every time there is a political shift in Latin America then we are not going to build real sustainable integration.

Son noticias bienvenidas que Estados Unidos tenga finalmente un embajador en México. La relación entre Estados Unidos y México esta en un momento crucial y es esencial para Washington tener a alguien con autoridad para lidiar con temas complejos de la agenda bilateral. A pesar que Landau no tiene experiencia diplomática, su trayectoria profesional como abogado será un activo importante. 

Há apenas alguns anos atrás, o Brasil teria resistido a uma aliança deste tipo. Em termos concretos, o novo status significa o fortalecimento dos laços militares entre os dois países. Também poderá ampliar a cooperação em inteligência e na luta contra o crime transnacional. Apesar disso, a expectativa de uma mudança radical das relações entre os dois países são modestas.

Além disso, parece haver pouco apetite da parte dos militares brasileiros para seguir este curso de ação. Parece também que o vice-presidente (brasileiro) Hamilton Mourão possui uma posição um pouco diferente da expressada por Bolsonaro e pelo ministro das Relações Exteriores (Ernesto Araújo). Podemos esperar uma boa dose de retórica agressiva contra Maduro e demonstrações de apoio ao (líder opositor e presidente autoproclamado da Venezuela, Juan) Guaidó, mas sem compromissos firmes.

Estados Unidos e Brasil nunca foram parceiros realmente sérios. Nunca houve hostilidade entre os dois países, mas as promessas de parcerias estratégicas nunca foram cumpridas.

[Bolton podría] tener el efecto contrario y reforzar el apoyo a Maduro [de los militares venezolanos], que no suelen responder bien a las amenazas del país.

A third scenario could see the military break from Maduro and organize elections — or overthrow him in a traditional coup. The scenario of military intervention, led by the United States, seems less and less likely — but it can't be ruled out, depending on how the situation develops. […] Regional conflict — featuring Colombian guerrillas operating in borderlands — is not beyond the realm of possibility either.

[A negotiated transition in Venezuela] would take longer, but it would increase the likelihood of it not being violent.

This kind of [international] pressure could push military leaders to embrace Guaidó and collapse the regime, paving the way for a transition with elections. So far there are few signs that this is happening, but it's possible.