Analysis

Venezuela, 20 years after Chávez

February 2nd marks two decades since Hugo Chavez first assumed the presidency of Venezuela. Today, the Bolivarian Revolution that Chavez led until his death in 2013 is at its most critical moment: the economy is in ruins, three million Venezuelans have emigrated in recent years, and his successor, Nicolás Maduro, rules as a dictator while Juan Guaidó took the oath as interim president with the support of the international community. 

Michael Shifter, Bruno Binetti

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ New York Times Español

The Monroe Doctrine may be dead in Latin America, but its ghost still haunts the White House

This is a critical moment in the Venezuela crisis – hopeful yet uncertain. Moving forward, senior Trump administration officials would be wise to devote more time with their Latin American counterparts, issuing joint statements and coordinating actions to pressure the regime and advance Mr. Guaido’s efforts at reconciliation. Posturing about the U.S.’s power and influence in Venezuela evokes a 19th-century doctrine that has long been irrelevant and is counterproductive.

Michael Shifter

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ The Globe and Mail

El espejismo antipartidario

Nayib Bukele lidera ampliamente las encuestas para la elección presidencial en El Salvador, que tendrá lugar en pocos días. Su gran activo ha sido el rechazo generalizado de la ciudadanía a los dos partidos que gobiernan el país desde hace un cuarto de siglo. La debilidad de los partidos es uno de los problemas más serios de la democracia en América Latina. Negarse a enfrentarlo es resignarse a tener una política balcanizada, volátil, caudillista y, por ello mismo, machista.

Kevin Casas-Zamora

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ New York Times Español

Venezuela on the Brink

Michael Camilleri discusses the many implications of Juan Guaidó’s rise to power in Venezuela.

Michael Camilleri

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ La Nación

Can Venezuela Have a Peaceful Transition?

The country’s opposition has gained new momentum, but it’s the military that will decide the fate of Nicolás Maduro’s presidency.

Michael Shifter

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ The New York Times

The Path to Stability in Venezuela is Narrow Indeed

Juan Guaidó’s proclamation that he is interim president of Venezuela, which has won the full support of the United States and other countries, opens a new phase in the long crisis of that Latin American nation. For the first time in years, dictator Nicolás Maduro is on the defensive, and Venezuelans are hopeful that change is possible. But it would be naïve to think this means the end of the chavista regime.

Bruno Binetti

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ New York Daily News

Who will save Brazil’s democracy if Jair Bolsonaro tries to destroy it?

Bolsonaro’s authoritarian rhetoric was hotly debated during the presidential campaign. His supporters embraced his brash promises to bring law and order to a country beset by crime, corruption and economic struggles. His opponents feared a resurgence of military rule or the emergence of a Duterte-style police state.

Michael Camilleri, Benjamin Gedan

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Miami Herald

The United States and Mexico: Partnership Tested

Few neighbors have such deep and wide-ranging ties as the United States and Mexico. Both countries are bound not only by geography, but also through economic, security and social connections. Despite these strong connections—or perhaps because of them—the bilateral relationship is subject to strong pressures coming from domestic politics in both countries.

Michael Shifter, Bruno Binetti

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Great Decisions

The Trump Effect in Latin America

Over a year ago, as Donald Trump was on one of his tirades full of insults and falsehoods – to which most Americans have, sadly, now become accustomed – I asked an Argentine friend if he had ever heard such aggressive rhetoric from a president before. “Sure I have,” he responded, “but never in English.”

Michael Shifter

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Ideele

George H.W. Bush: Ambitious Agenda for the Americas

In Latin America, Bush will be most remembered for his trade initiatives. These were his most consequential and enduring contributions to Inter-American relations.

Peter Hakim

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ Latinvex

The G20 in Buenos Aires Will Disappoint–But Not All Is Lost

In the annual meeting of the world’s largest economies, which starts on Friday in Argentina, it seemed that Latin America and its most pressing concerns – such as the crisis in Venezuela – would be the priorities. However, it is now clear that the current complex global dynamic will dominate.

Irene Estefanía, Ben Raderstorf

Articles & Op-Eds ˙ ˙ The New York Times Español

Police Transformation in Latin America by 2030

A new report by Dialogue fellow Kevin Casas, Paola González and Liliana Mesías analyzes the dominant trends in police behavior and organization and predicts how they will shape police forces over time.

Kevin Casas-Zamora, Paola González , Liliana Mesías

Reports ˙ ˙ Download Report

No Strangers at the Gate 

A report presenting recommendations to countries and organizations contending with the Venezuelan migration and refugee crisis.

Michael Camilleri, Fen Osler Hampson

Reports ˙ ˙ Download Report