Latin America Advisor

Energy Advisor

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Can Ecuador Pump Enough Oil to Meet its 2023 Budget?

Ecuador’s 2023 budget is planning for 188 million barrels of oil--a rise in production of 35,000 barrels per day. // File Photo: Ecuadorean Government.

Ecuador’s budget for next year plans for an estimated production of 188 million barrels of oil in 2023, a significant increase from this year’s output. The country currently produces oil at an average of 482,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to the central bank, a figure that will need to rise by 35,000 bpd to meet the state budget’s expectations for next year. Energy Minister Fernando Santos, who was appointed in October, has pledged to increase national oil production. How likely is Ecuador to meet its oil production goal, and what will be the decisive factors? How will the country’s national budget be affected if the yearly output is not reached, and which sectors will be most affected?

Jose Valera, partner at Mayer Brown: “Ecuador expects to obtain the needed increase in production mainly from the Sacha field and Block 43, the latter also known as ITT (for the Ishpingo, Tambococha y Tiputini fields within the block). Sacha currently has the highest production rates, but ITT has the largest reserves. Minister Fernando Santos says that increasing production from Sacha will be ‘easy.’ Increasing production from ITT, however, will not be easy. ITT is mainly located inside the Yasuní National Park in the Amazon rain forest. More than 30 wells are planned to be drilled in the Ishpingo field. Not all environmental permits for these wells have been obtained yet. Additionally, there is very strong opposition from native communities to this additional drilling and the attendant construction of service facilities such as access roads. The odds are low that Ecuador will…”

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A sister publication of the Inter-American Dialogue’s daily Latin America Advisor, the weekly Energy Advisor captures fresh analysis from business leaders and government officials on the most important developments in oil and gas, biofuels, the power sector, renewables, new technologies, and the policy debates shaping the future of energy in the Western Hemisphere and beyond. To subscribe or for more information, contact Erik Brand, publisher of the Advisor, at ebrand@thedialogue.org.


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Erik Brand

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