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AMLO’s skepticism of private investment, the cancellation of generation and transmission auctions, and the return to state-led electricity development through bolstering of the CFE threaten to squander Mexico’s renewable potential and drag its clean development efforts backwards.
Even if Juan Guaido or another opposition figure finally takes the reins and starts fixing the oil sector in Venezuela, it will take years before oil exports can provide the economic boost needed to pull the nation out of the morass. Venezuela’s oil industry has been severely damaged, and there are questions about the long-term economic viability of its oil fields. Venezuelans will likely be disappointed with the pace of the economic turnaround under any new government—a risk that poses a real threat to political stability. Expectations ought to be tempered.
We are pleased to announce that Dr. Jorge León has joined the Dialogue’s weekly Energy Advisor publication’s board of advisors.
On December 13, the Inter-American Dialogue hosted an event for corporate program members called “The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Next Year.”
November’s midterm elections altered the balance of power in Washington, and the new Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, which will mean new chairs on key committees, will play an important role in shaping US energy diplomacy and energy markets in the Western Hemisphere. At an event co-hosted by the Inter-American Dialogue and the Institute of the Americas, panelists discussed how the new Congress will approach key issues affecting energy within the context of Latin America’s evolving role in US trade and foreign policy.
Mexico’s 2013 energy reform has led to pledges of almost $200 billion of private investment and renewable power auctions garnering bids to provide electricity at record-low prices. The Mexican government should continue to build on the successes of the reform, César Hernández, former Mexican undersecretary for electricity, and Jorge Castilla, managing director for Mexico at Accenture, said at an event hosted by the Inter-American Dialogue, the Embassy of Mexico, and the Energy Policy Research Foundation.
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Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in the Brazilian presidential election was widely seen as promising for the country’s oil sector, which has been revitalized by reforms that opened the upstream market under the Temer administration, but many questions remain unanswered as the January 1 inauguration approaches. Lisa Viscidi spoke with Meghan Gordon and Brian Scheid of the Capitol Crude podcast about the future of Petrobas and its subsidiaries, fuel subsidies, and deepwater exploration under Bolsonaro.
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In an interview with Benjamin Gedan, director of the Wilson Center’s Argentina Project, Lisa Viscidi discusses the current conditions and outlook for three key components of the Argentine energy sector.
Will Pemex’s most recent oil discoveries be enough to reverse the country’s output declines?
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2018 has been a year marked by great political uncertainty for Latin American energy markets. Oil prices are up, creating strong incentives for investment, rising US natural gas exports are creating a new source of flexible, cheaper energy for Latin American consumers, and the cost of wind and solar energy is declining dramatically. However, Latin America continues to face uncertainty in energy policy as new governments take office in many countries and geopolitical tensions between the US and China are on the rise. With many questions on the table, government officials, corporate representatives, and analysts gathered on October 25 at the Inter-American Dialogue to assess the future of energy policy in the Western Hemisphere.
Until this year, resource nationalism—when a government asserts its control over a country’s natural resources—seemed to be on the wane in Latin America. But its potential return could set back Latin America’s two largest economies.
How does USMCA, the new NAFTA deal, affect the energy sector? What are the biggest changes? Will it boost investment and cooperation?
Could Venezuela’s oil production decline even more steeply? Three evolving developments will largely determine the answer: whether creditors can seize assets in compensation for default, whether large numbers of oil workers continue to abandon their jobs, and whether the United States and other countries impose additional sanctions.
President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador can capitalize on Mexico’s enormous renewable energy potential and make Mexico a leader in the fight against climate change. Although his platform offers some promising proposals, he will have to maneuver through several major obstacles.
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The Brazilian oil & gas industry is going through its “largest transformation ever,” said Décio Oddone, Director-General for the Brazilian National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP) at an event organized by the Inter-American Dialogue on June 28th.
