Latin America Advisor

A Daily Publication of The Dialogue

Does Sunday’s Close Election Mean Trouble for El Salvador?

Fernanda LeMarie / CC BY-SA 2.0

Q: El Salvador's electoral court yesterday declared leftist Salvador Sánchez Cerén the winner of the country's razor-close presidential election. Runner-up Norman Quijano, however, can still appeal and has threatened to take the dispute to El Salvador's Supreme Court if necessary. How long will the dispute over the contested election drag on? What will the close election mean for El Salvador's next president and his ability to govern? Does the election dispute indicate El Salvador is in for a period of political polarization and dysfunction ahead? What are the biggest challenges facing the next president?

A: Ricardo Cevallos, partner at BLP Abogados in El Salvador: "The dispute over the contested election, under the electoral code, cannot take long. If Arena decides to take every alternative to challenge the elections, it could take longer; but it should not take longer than June 1 because the newly elected president must take office then. Arena must consider the importance of their decision on the country's institutions. Respecting the election results, if there is no strong evidence to challenge them, would make the party stronger with its voters. A close election like this one, when combined with the first round, sends messages to everyone. We continue to be a highly polarized two-party country. Arena continues to have a strong position with its traditional followers, but also with those who fear extreme left-wing control of the country. In addition, there is no room for third-party presidential candidates and probably will not be in the near future. FMLN has probably reached its maximum number of voters, and in order to obtain more votes in the future, it will have to do things right in the eyes of the electorate. Due to this close election, the next president, aside from the challenges that the country is facing, will also have to deal with having the support of only half of the voters in the country. The new president's maneuverability will be lessened by the opposition, by the close margin win and by the make-up of Congress as it stands today. It is going to be extremely difficult, in light of Sunday's elections, for the party that wins the presidential election to control Congress next year, unless the new president does everything extremely well between now and then."

A: Douglas Farah, president of IBI Consultants and senior associate in the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies: "Sunday's very close election results, with the FMLN now the declared winner, present the nation's two main parties, which fought each other in a bloody civil war, with the most significant challenge to the democratic process since the signing of the 1992 peace accords. The elections show how deeply polarized the nation is, and the traditional tactics of each side to try to delegitimize and demonize whatever the other side does or says are now underway. This is dangerous, given the history of political violence in the country and current levels of violence. In the best case scenario, President-elect Salvador Sánchez Cerén will face the extremely difficult tasks of trying to lower violence, deal with the enormous and complex problems of gangs and restart economic growth with a very large sector of the opposition that will not only seek to block his initiatives but will question his legitimacy at every turn. Ironically, Arena lost, and ended up in a much stronger position than most initially thought possible. By running such a competitive campaign after the disastrous first round, Arena remained a weakened but still important political force. The FMLN, by coming so close to a first round victory and then barely eking out second round win, enters the process in a weakened position. The FMLN poured tens of millions of dollars of outside resources into the campaign, in addition to having all the advantages of an incumbent administration, and won by the narrowest of margins. This is an unfortunate formula for gridlock and recrimination rather than problem solving."

A: Christine Wade, associate professor of political science and international studies at Washington College in Chestertown, Md.: "Prior to election day, the FMLN's Salvador Sánchez Cerén led Arena's Norman Quijano in the polls by double-digits. Given the closeness of Sunday's results (about 6,600 votes in favor of the FMLN), it's unsurprising that they would be contested. It was perfectly reasonable (if not obligatory) for Quijano and Arena to seek a recount, but some demands exceeded the legal remedies provided by the electoral code and post-election rhetoric has been unconstructive--if not reckless-at times. Unsubstantiated accusations of fraud, demanding the nullification of the elections, calling on the military to defend democracy, the suggestion of creating a parallel government--these things merely served to reinforce the polarizing nature of Arena's fear campaign and could potentially undermine respect for democratic institutions. The recount was transparent, in accordance with the law, performed in the presence of international observers and even broadcast live on the TSE Web site. Arena's will eventually abide by the results, but the polarization generated by the elections could challenge the new administration. Party polarization has been and remains an impediment to governance. The failure to overcome it will prevent the next administration from effectively addressing the country's serious problems. Public insecurity, narco-trafficking and organized crime, economic stagnation, corruption, poverty and inequality--this is what awaits the new administration. While the parties have different ideas about how to best address these problems, they must work together to find solutions. Sánchez Cerén has already sent messages of unity to Arena and the business sector, but whether they can put aside their differences remains to be seen."

A: Joydeep Mukherji, senior director of Latin American Sovereign Ratings at Standard & Poor's in New York: "Regardless of the outcome, the new administration is likely to show continuity and pragmatism in economic policies. Much of the country's policy framework is anchored in international commitments (such as free-trade agreements) and reflects important policy decisions undertaken by previous governments (such as dollarization) that are difficult to reverse. Moreover, the new president will have to work with the current Congress until legislative elections in 2015, which likely means cooperating with smaller parties like GANA to pass ordinary laws. The biggest challenge facing the new president is how to govern a country that is almost evenly divided politically, and reduce the level of distrust and polarization. His ability to work with the Congress, as well as the private sector, will be a key factor. Much depends on the ability of leaders of both parties to avoid four more years of bitter conflict and agree upon a minimal common agenda to address the country's economic problems, focusing on economic growth and creating more jobs. GDP growth has been around 1.5 percent during the last five years on average, falling from nearly 6 percent in the 1990s, and around 2.3 percent in the early years of this century. The declining long-term trend in growth is a serious problem, and has contributed to large budget deficits, higher government debt, and weakening sovereign creditworthiness. The poor growth record is in large part due to the bitter political legacy of the civil war, which persists more than two decades later. El Salvador needs statesmanship to move ahead."