This month, the White House announced that U.S. President Barack Obama would be visiting Cuba and Argentina in March, making him the first sitting U.S. president to visit Cuba in more than 50 years and the first to conduct a bilaterally focused visit to Argentina in nearly two decades. What do these visits signify for Obama’s foreign policy toward Latin America as he enters his eighth and final year as president? What issues in U.S.-Latin American relations should Obama focus on with the time that remains? What sort of foundation will these visits set for the future of U.S.-Latin American relations under the next U.S. president, to be elected this November?

Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue: “President Barack Obama’s visits to Cuba and Argentina are superficially similar: Obama wants to rebuild normal relations after considerable periods of estrangement. Cuba represents a historic shift for the United States—designed to erase the last remnant of its often ugly Cold War policies in Latin America and end 55 years of U.S.-Cuban hostility. No other foreign policy initiative of this White House has been more widely or enthusiastically applauded. Despite expectations, the U.S.-Cuba thaw has not yet led to better U.S. relations with Latin America, but over time it may have a positive effect. Obama is going to Havana to get his own view of what has changed for Cuba and the Cuban people, and to celebrate with them. His intention is also to help make the changes irreversible—which, more than anything else will require (1) the United States to finally lift its despised trade embargo and (2) the Cuban government to do far more to open its politics and economy, including accepting international norms regarding human rights, press freedom and the rule of law. Obama may succeed in generating some of the momentum needed to advance this agenda in both Havana and Washington. The trip to Argentina is a simpler affair. Obama wants to show that—after years of mostly ignoring Argentina—the United States can re-establish a productive relationship with a government that is less confrontational, manages its economy more responsibly and is more predictable. It is premature to say whether either visit has much impact on U.S.-Latin American ties. Aside from the new relationship with Cuba, Obama’s investment and accomplishments in the region have been modest. That Latin America, aside from immigration issues, has hardly been mentioned in the U.S. presidential campaign suggests that its priority is unlikely to rise much in the coming period.”

Cecilia Nahón, former ambassador of Argentina to the United States and former G20 Sherpa: “President Barack Obama’s upcoming trip to Latin America comes at a decisive time for the region. After a decade of successful policies of inclusive growth that lifted millions of Latin Americans out of poverty, today’s unfavorable global economy coupled with revamped adjustment policies throughout the region are putting these hard-earned achievements at serious risk. Obama’s upcoming trip is the latest step in his administration’s strategy toward strengthening U.S. influence in the region after a decade of undermined U.S. leadership. In the case of Argentina, President Mauricio Macri’s eagerness to push forward an agenda strongly aligned with the United States—which has already weakened Argentina’s partnership with the region and other emerging countries—provided Obama with the long-coveted platform to head south. However, when Obama lands in Argentina after his historic visit to Cuba, he will find that Macri’s government has already created a much more challenging and complex situation for itself than the one local media is portraying for the region’s ‘rising star.’ Macri is purportedly reversing many of the righteous policies that doubled the size of Argentina’s middle class and significantly reduced income inequality between 2003 and 2015. Workers’ rejection last week of the new regressive economic program led to the first general strike against the government. And last week, Argentina’s internationally respected human rights organizations met with Macri and released a statement expressing their profound concern about central aspects of human rights policies since he took office: growing police violence and repression of pacific demonstrations; increasing restrictions to the right to protest and freedom of expression; repeated use of executive orders to modify legislation enacted by Congress; and the arbitrary imprisonment of an opposition social activist in Jujuy, among others. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the Inter-American Commission of Human Rights have already spoken out. Within this challenging scenario, Obama faces a historic opportunity to infuse U.S. policy toward Argentina, and Latin America, with fresh air, moving away from past mistakes: a chance to place at the center of bilateral cooperation the same progressive agenda—in favor of inclusiveness, against Wall Street abuses, committed to job creation—that he himself, and the Democratic Presidential candidates, are campaigning for at home. It is a good time to avoid double standards of every kind.”

Adam Isacson, senior associate for the regional security policy program at the Washington Office on Latin America: “President Barack Obama’s travel schedule tells us much about his remaining agenda in Latin America. One visit is a historical step in thawing relations with a longtime adversary. The other is a quick embrace of a new pro-business, pro-United States government. The subtext is ‘we prefer President Mauricio Macri’s political and economic model, but we’re willing to talk to everybody.’ This is consistent with Obama’s message at his 2009 inauguration, when he pledged, ‘We will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.’ A desire to engage instead of isolate runs through the Obama administration’s vocal support for Colombia’s peace negotiations, in which a special envoy dialogues regularly with a group on the U.S. terror list, as well as its quiet diplomacy with Venezuela, its renewed pledge to close the Guantánamo prison and its encouragement of Central American leaders to do more to fight impunity. Critics of this engagement approach often cite human rights. In Cuba, some view that Obama is rewarding insufficient progress by a regime that continues to stifle dissent. The Argentina leg of the trip unfortunately occurs on the 40th anniversary of the 1976 coup that brought to power a military government that killed tens of thousands. Advocates worry that President Obama may not send a strong enough message about preserving recent progress in punishing those abuses. Accused of subsuming human rights to other priorities, the Obama administration counters that engagement, rather than isolating and scolding, and can gradually prod regimes to open their societies and give more space to democracy. Cuba is a test of this hypothesis, but because the hoped-for change is gradual, the debate will not be over when Obama leaves office in 11 months.”

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