Among the meetings at this month’s APEC summit in San Francisco was one between Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Chinese President Xi Jinping

Presidents Xi Jinping of China, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico, Joe Biden of the United States and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau were among the leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum that took place this month in San Francisco. López Obrador met with Xi, Trudeau and Biden during the summit. What came out of López Obrador’s meetings with the other leaders, and what were the most important issues under discussion? What will the meeting between Biden and Xi, their first in a year, mean for Latin America, particularly on the issue of fentanyl production? 

Margaret Myers, director of the Asia & Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue: “The APEC meeting in San Francisco was reflective of a rather dramatic pivot in the institution’s focus over time—from an agenda centered on trade and investment facilitation to one that now reflects the expansive shifts underway in APEC member nations. Trade and investment factored prominently in discussions, of course, but so did sustainability, inclusivity and supply chain resilience, as countries grapple with the effects of climate change and look to apply lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic. In the 2024 meeting, Peru will advance these ‘three pillars,’ according to Renato Reyes Tagle, Peru’s top APEC official. As host, Peru will also evidently focus on a few related issues, including high levels of informality in many APEC economies and the use of green hydrogen as part of a just energy transition. In San Francisco, the United States was focused on strengthening APEC and advancing various multilateral frameworks rather than on individual bilateral meetings—aside from the high-profile Biden-Xi bilateral, of course, which both sides viewed as generally positive. Xi, however, met one-on-one with a handful of leaders and in each case noted interest in furthering cooperation. López Obrador and Xi focused on Mexico’s development plans in the Yucatán and solar energy development in the north of the country, for instance, in addition to bilateral cooperation on fentanyl—building on U.S.-China consideration of that matter. Boluarte and Xi focused on boosting trade and investment under the auspices of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Colombia was in the room for the APEC leaders’ meeting and continues to push for APEC membership.”

Jiang Shixue, professor at Shanghai University: “Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has never paid a state visit to China, although he has had several online talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Will he visit China before Mexico’s presidential election next year? Probably not. That means he is the only Mexican president who will have never visited China in his six-year tenure. It is quite unusual. Therefore, the only face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the two countries at the recent APEC summit is very important. During the meeting, the two leaders discussed many issues related to the development of bilateral relations. President Xi said China attaches great importance to its relationship with Mexico and supports Mexico’s independent development path in line with its national reality. He also expressed China’s willingness to strengthen cooperation with Mexico in such areas as infrastructure, finance and electric vehicles. President López Obrador said China was the first country to offer Covid-related assistance to Mexico. He also mentioned that Mexico is firmly opposed to external interference in any country’s domestic affairs and that it would continue to promote its bilateral relations with China. Interestingly, the two leaders also discussed possibilities for cooperation in fighting illegal trafficking of fentanyl, an issue to which the United States has paid great attention. According to the American think tank RAND, fentanyl is the most dangerous illegal drug in the United States. However, this issue will not be resolved if the American demand for this chemical is not dealt with effectively. As in the case of cocaine trade between the United States and the Andean countries, containing demand is more vital than reducing supply.”

Ignacio Tornero, founder and CEO of East Consulting in Santiago: “The recent meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi was probably the most important and successful one of any two world leaders this year, and it has the potential to become a new starting point for resuming the communication and cooperation among the world’s largest economies and powers. This symbolic and productive meeting held in San Francisco will certainly not just affect Latin America, but the whole world. The meeting marked a farewell to the antagonistic and ‘zero-sum’ approach started by former President Donald Trump and his ‘trade war.’ The United States and China now directly acknowledge that they are direct competitors but, at the same time, they recognize that there are several areas in which they can cooperate (such as fighting narcotics, resuming high-level military-to-military communication and addressing issues like artificial intelligence. It also evidences that both countries are more conscious of the leading role the world expects them to play. In addition, both countries recognize that, by having close cooperation, the American and the Chinese people will benefit as well, which is each government’s main objective. Seeing bilateral trade as an exchange in which just one country wins is very simplistic and far from reality. Latin America will greatly benefit from this new relationship because it will reduce the anxiety of the need to ‘choose a side,’ and the region can also offer its own resources and strengths to make this new relationship a success.” Alicia García Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis and senior research fellow at Bruegel: “The meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the APEC meeting in San Francisco is important for a number of reasons. First, Canada and Mexico are by now larger trading partners for the United States than China, and the Biden administration wants this trend to continue. Second, China is becoming increasingly important for Mexico for sourcing, with an estimated 40 percent of the value added to Mexico’s exports into the United States already coming from China. President Biden needs to see that the supply chain that the United States has been pushing with Mexico and Canada reduces the United States’ dependence on China, as far as trade is concerned. This is particularly important for green tech, given China’s dominance of that export market. At the same time, it is in Mexico’s interest to serve as a platform for the manufacturing of green tech to serve the U.S. market and compete with China in that regard. The question is whether President López Obrador, given how close he is to the end of his tenure, will seek such a medium-term opportunity. Canada would obviously be instrumental in the supply of critical materials in such a supply chain. As regards a more specific, but extremely important issue for the United States, China’s agreement to reduce the export of fentanyl has Mexico as a major player. This means that Biden cannot only search for assurances from President Xi, but also from President López Obrador. Biden clearly has some sticks but also carrots to offer to Mexico, which should get both economies together, which will also benefit Canada.”

Alicia García Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis and senior research fellow at Bruegel: “The meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the APEC meeting in San Francisco is important for a number of reasons. First, Canada and Mexico are by now larger trading partners for the United States than China, and the Biden administration wants this trend to continue. Second, China is becoming increasingly important for Mexico for sourcing, with an estimated 40 percent of the value added to Mexico’s exports into the United States already coming from China. President Biden needs to see that the supply chain that the United States has been pushing with Mexico and Canada reduces the United States’ dependence on China, as far as trade is concerned. This is particularly important for green tech, given China’s dominance of that export market. At the same time, it is in Mexico’s interest to serve as a platform for the manufacturing of green tech to serve the U.S. market and compete with China in that regard. The question is whether President López Obrador, given how close he is to the end of his tenure, will seek such a medium-term opportunity. Canada would obviously be instrumental in the supply of critical materials in such a supply chain. As regards a more specific, but extremely important issue for the United States, China’s agreement to reduce the export of fentanyl has Mexico as a major player. This means that Biden cannot only search for assurances from President Xi, but also from President López Obrador. Biden clearly has some sticks but also carrots to offer to Mexico, which should get both economies together, which will also benefit Canada.”

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