U.S. Air Force airmen are pictured installing a fence along the border east of San Luis, Ariz., in 2006.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump kicked off his candidacy a year and a half ago by condemning illegal immigration from Mexico to the United States, and a centerpiece of his campaign has been a promise to “begin working on an impenetrable physical wall on the southern border, on day one,” that Mexico will pay for. How likely is it that Trump will be able to achieve what he has promised with regard to Mexico and immigration policy during his campaign? If carried out, how would Trump’s plans affect the lives of Mexican and Central American immigrants in the United States? How might Trump’s policies influence migration?

Jim Kolbe, senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and former Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Arizona: "Peter Thiel, the hedge fund manager who was one of Donald Trump’s few Silicon Valley supporters, probably had it right when he told an audience at the National Press Club two weeks before the election that the problem with the media is that they take everything Donald Trump says literally. His supporters don’t. Thus, said Thiel, while the media wants to know the details of how Trump will build a wall, how high it will be, or how it could be manned, his supporters simply think of it as a metaphor for a tougher immigration policy. President Trump will not build a wall the length of the border, though he might reinforce the physical barrier in certain places. It is likely that his immigration policy will be confined to deporting illegals in this country with a criminal record—a move that would be broadly popular in the United States. But instead of the one-to-two million people in this category as candidate Trump suggested, he will find it is in the tens of thousands. Overall immigration numbers are likely to be less affected by harsh rhetoric than the reality of Trump’s trade policy, particularly as it relates to reopening NAFTA. Were he to succeed in doing this and reduce Mexico’s ability to freely move manufactured goods across the border, it could trigger an economic recession in Mexico. A faltering economy in Mexico inevitably leads to more illegal immigration to the United States, as people move to where jobs are to be found that can support themselves and their families."

Faye Hipsman, policy analyst with the Migration Policy Institute’s U.S. immigration policy program: "Donald Trump’s victory holds far-ranging implications for U.S. immigration policy and for many immigrants residing in the United States, particularly the unauthorized. While much is unknown about the incoming Trump administration’s future plans, the president-elect has identified immigration and border security as a key policy focus. Several of his immigration pledges can be achieved early and solely using executive authority. For example, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which has provided deportation protection and work authorization to more than 700,000 unauthorized youth, may be rescinded. New restrictions on refugee admissions, particularly of Syrians, are also likely. Other Trump campaign pledges, however, may take more time and require input from Congress. While the Trump administration can take steps to increase deportations, large-scale removals to the tune of three million will only be possible with a substantial infusion of congressional appropriations. Similarly, Mr. Trump can devote existing resources to bolster infrastructure at the border, but the construction of a wall along the entire border would necessitate billions in new funding. With unified control in Washington, Republicans will have a serious opportunity to advance their immigration agenda. Top contenders include eliminating sanctuary cities, rolling back protections for unaccompanied children arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border and further scrutiny of would-be refugees. Revisions to the legal immigration system appear possible only after major enforcement increases. To the degree that Republican lawmakers and President-elect Trump can overcome divisions over immigration within their party and weather Democratic opposition, there exists a rare path forward to achieve sweeping new immigration laws and policies."

Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR): "Donald Trump began his quest for the presidency by affirming the legitimacy of the concerns Americans have about their nation’s dysfunctional immigration policies. Since then, Trump has honed his approach to immigration policy without abandoning the core principle that the American people are the primary stakeholders. From the perspective of the American public, the precise strategy details for carrying out enforcement and securing our borders are far less important than achieving the desired results: protecting the vital interests of U.S. workers and taxpayers, and our national security. To accomplish these goals, we need physical infrastructure along the border and we need to increase removals. More importantly, we need to deter people from coming or remaining here illegally. A holistic approach should include sensible strategies to prevent illegal aliens from claiming jobs, eliminate sanctuary policies and end speculation that breaking our laws will result in amnesty. The new president will also enjoy majorities in both houses of Congress, which will give him the opportunity to reform legal immigration, instituting a fairer, more limited, merit-based system. Illegal aliens understood that they were violating U.S. laws by coming here and have no reasonable expectation that they would be allowed to live and work in this country. The aim of immigration enforcement is not to punish or inflict unnecessary hardship. Rather the goal is to protect the legitimate interests of the American people whose jobs, wages, tax dollars and security are undermined by mass illegal immigration. Such reforms are consistent with the restoring a public interest objective to immigration."

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