Senator Alejandro Guillier and former President Sebastián Piñera (L-R).

Conservative presidential candidate Sebastián Piñera, who led Chile from 2010 to 2014, on Dec. 17 will face off against center-leftist Alejandro Guillier in a runoff that polls suggest will be very close. Who will win and why? Will Guillier, if elected, pursue economic or social policies that differ sharply from those of the current administration of centrist President Michelle Bachelet? How would a second Piñera presidency compare to his first?

Robert Funk, professor of political science in the Institute of Public Policy at the University of Chile: "The spectacular failure of public opinion polls to predict both the leftist Frente Amplio’s strong showing and Sebastián Piñera’s uninspiring result in the Nov. 19 first round vote make predicting the results of the upcoming runoff almost impossible, although the latest polls show Piñera and Senator Alejandro Guillier essentially tied. The winner will be determined by who turns up on election day, and that, in turn, will be determined by who more successfully manages to mobilize his respective base. To do so, both candidates are making this stage of the election about who hates the other side more, making for a pretty negative campaign. That aside, Guillier appears to have the momentum, as Piñera has made some errors (such as raising doubts about the integrity of the first round) and has not yet made the traditional second-round shift to the center. Piñera may not be wrong in this: the center appears to have disappeared from Chilean politics. A look at the congressional elections, also held on Nov. 19, which elected 23 senators and the entire Chamber of Deputies, reflects a more diverse but also more polarized Chile. In the new session beginning in March, neither house will have a clear majority, with small parties, especially the much-diminished Christian Democratic Party, probably playing a pivotal role as a swing vote. This, plus the fact that the left and center-left are by no means a homogeneous bloc, mean that whoever wins the presidential runoff will have a hard time getting his legislative agenda through Congress. The new Congress also indicates how much Chile has changed. Young voters are rejecting traditional political parties, and the conventional left-right scale appears to mean less and less. These voters are less worried than were their parents about consensus and governability, and they are more impatient for social policy to catch up to the progress made on the economic front. The next president of Chile will have a far more challenging time than any of his predecessors."

Peter DeShazo, visiting professor of Latin American, Latino and Caribbean Studies at Dartmouth College and former deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs: "Piñera has the advantage in the runoff. Despite his lower-than-expected numbers in the November vote, he has a more committed support base than Guillier, who to win must attract centrist Christian Democrats and a very large share of the some-25 percent of first-round votes that candidates on the left won. The key variable is the potential transferability of votes from the surprisingly strong candidate of the leftist Frente Amplio movement, Beatriz Sánchez, to Guillier. Frente Amplio leadership has taken an ambiguous position in the second round by officially withholding institutional endorsement of Guillier but with individuals expressing support for him or criticizing Piñera. With its anti-establishment orientation and youthful following, the Frente Amplio voter base may not be readily motivated to support Guillier. That puts him in the vulnerable position of having to move his campaign abruptly leftward to court votes. Regardless of who wins, the new president will contend with growing citizen dissatisfaction with the social and economic status quo in Chile and with growing distrust of traditional politics. He will also inherit a divided Congress, putting a premium on negotiation and compromise in an environment where the political center is losing ground to both the left and right. What remains to be seen in the new reality of Chilean politics is the degree to which consensus-building across the political spectrum can be achieved."

Rossana Castiglioni, associate professor of political science at the Universidad Diego Portales in Chile: "There are three main reasons why it is impossible to predict the results of the election. First, this is the first time Chile is holding national elections under a new electoral system. Second, a new player, the Frente Amplio, emerged. Third, most of the Chilean electorate (some 54 percent) did not vote in the first round. As a result of these three factors, there is an enormous level of political uncertainty and an impossibility to offer reasonable predictions. In order to win the runoff, Alejandro Guillier needs to win the support of the Frente Amplio voters, something that is not easy to achieve, in part because Frente Amplio is internally divided, and in part because it is not a cohesive, disciplined political block. Guillier has defined himself as the heir of Bachelet’s legacy, so he will probably try to pursue a path of economic and social policy continuity. Additionally, if elected, he will be unable to introduce radical changes, because he lacks control over the Congress. Piñera has the advantage of having a ‘captive’ right-wing vote. In this way, in order to win the incoming elections, he will have to move toward the center. As a result, a second Piñera government will probably reflect some of the policy preferences of the middle voter. Additionally, if elected, Piñera will have to deal with active social movements and political actors from the left, which will organize against a right-wing government from the very outset."

Claudia Heiss, assistant professor at the University of Chile, researcher at the Center for Social Conflict and Cohesion Studies and member of the Observatory of the Constituent Process in Chile: "It is impossible to say who will win the runoff election. What is clear is that the triumphalism that characterized Sebastián Piñera’s campaign is now something of the past. Recent declarations about electoral fraud by the former front-runner may be a sign of desperation in front of a shortening distance to his contender. Piñera mentioned marked votes in the first round with the names of left-wing candidates Guillier and Beatriz Sánchez. These claims, apparently intended to motivate his supporters to monitor on-site the Dec. 17 runoff, backfired, prompting accusations of irresponsibility and leading Beatriz Sánchez to publicly endorse Guillier for the first time. The votes of the Frente Amplio are crucial for a Guillier triumph. The Frente Amplio voters seek, like Guillier’s Fuerza de la Mayoría party, a social-democratic project, but with a more reformist twist and with strong emphasis on citizen participation. Guillier named international commerce expert Osvaldo Rosales as chief of his campaign, sending a message of moderation and concern for growth and investment. After the November election, he has appealed to left-of-center voters by giving priority to changing the 1980 Pinochet Constitution and addressing the need to increase redistribution. At the same time, he has declared that he does not intend to implement new tax reforms. His message is one of continuity with the gradual reformism of President Michelle Bachelet. Piñera’s discourse, on the other hand, has made a sharp turn toward social policy. He recently endorsed the public provision of free education, something rejected by right-wing allies like former presidential candidate Felipe Kast. A second Piñera presidency would probably be more centrist than the first."

Guillermo Holzmann, professor at the University of Valparaíso, Chile and CEO of Analytyka Consulting: "Both Piñera and Guillier’s proposals are based on economic growth, as a platform for development in the case of Piñera and as a continuation of Bachelet’s policies and a deepening of the rights and reforms in the case of Guillier. Piñera has the better chance of winning on Dec. 17, which means he will be seeking the votes of those who abstained in the first round of voting—around 6.5 million voters—and capturing the votes of those who chose the third electoral option, which has been associated with transparency, credibility, solidarity and justice. There is, thus, a confrontation between the proposals of conservative Piñera and progressive Guillier. This highlights an ideological inflection point that has polarized the campaigns and has delayed Piñera’s expected victory, though there is uncertainty as to whether he will win the second round, given the intensity of the campaigns. While Chile is not facing a crucial dilemma with respect to its future, the type of development the country will see and the future of its economy is at stake on Dec. 17. A second Piñera administration will face fragmentation among all political parties, as well as an opposition that demands transformations within the framework of President Michelle Bachelet’s reforms. The formulas for addressing the needs of education, health and pension reforms will be distinct. In Piñera’s case, the solutions will be centered on the free market, while for Guillier, he would focus on strengthening the role of the state. A second Piñera administration will have the challenge of assuming a realist and pragmatic stance in the face of intense dialogue and negotiation."

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