Além disso, parece haver pouco apetite da parte dos militares brasileiros para seguir este curso de ação. Parece também que o vice-presidente (brasileiro) Hamilton Mourão possui uma posição um pouco diferente da expressada por Bolsonaro e pelo ministro das Relações Exteriores (Ernesto Araújo). Podemos esperar uma boa dose de retórica agressiva contra Maduro e demonstrações de apoio ao (líder opositor e presidente autoproclamado da Venezuela, Juan) Guaidó, mas sem compromissos firmes.
Estados Unidos e Brasil nunca foram parceiros realmente sérios. Nunca houve hostilidade entre os dois países, mas as promessas de parcerias estratégicas nunca foram cumpridas.
[Bolton podría] tener el efecto contrario y reforzar el apoyo a Maduro [de los militares venezolanos], que no suelen responder bien a las amenazas del país.
A third scenario could see the military break from Maduro and organize elections — or overthrow him in a traditional coup. The scenario of military intervention, led by the United States, seems less and less likely — but it can't be ruled out, depending on how the situation develops. […] Regional conflict — featuring Colombian guerrillas operating in borderlands — is not beyond the realm of possibility either.
[A negotiated transition in Venezuela] would take longer, but it would increase the likelihood of it not being violent.
This kind of [international] pressure could push military leaders to embrace Guaidó and collapse the regime, paving the way for a transition with elections. So far there are few signs that this is happening, but it's possible.
Ortega tiene temor a que, dentro de este proceso político de negociación, el tema de justicia transicional vaya a implicar una comisión de la verdad que le atribuya los crimines cometidos contra la población. Los informes de Naciones Unidas y de derechos humanos de la OEA, entre otras instituciones, han demostrado que hay crímenes que constituyen lesa humanidad.
The oil sanctions were imposed weeks ago and I think the [Trump] administration expected Maduro to have fallen by now […] Venezuela is struggling to find buyers for its crude oil, but it is still getting shipments into India and Europe so pressuring other countries and banks to more strictly impose US sanctions is one of the few options left.
Even Maduro’s staunchest opponents in the region want to keep some distance from the US and from Trump since they can’t point to evidence that he is really focused on promoting democracy around the world. Aside from Latin America and in particular Maduro, the rule they see is Trump’s admiration for strongmen and lack of opposition to autocrats.
The crisis in Venezuela is so profound and tragic, and is having such a tremendous impact around the region, that Latin Americans are desperate to find some way to get it resolved. People know this effort is going to include the United States, but at the same time there are widespread hesitations and concerns because of the historic role the US has played in the region.
[Vecchio] is not going to be on one side or the other. He’ll try to build bridges and generate support. There is clearly broad, bipartisan support for democratic transition in Venezuela, but this is a very polarized city, with a sort of reflex to be against whatever Trump tries to promote. There’s a lot of mistrust of Trump among Democrats … but Vecchio is the right person to navigate this political environment. He knows he needs the support of the Trump administration, and he also knows that the Democrats control the House and that he really has to get bipartisan support.
I have a very high regard for Carlos Vecchio. He’s got the background, skills and temperament for the job. He’s very committed to democratic transition, but he’s level-headed and realistic, and he’s been in this fight for a long time.
Mi sensación es que el Presidente Piñera tiene estrechos lazos con las figuras de la oposición venezolana y un compromiso para ayudar al país a avanzar hacia la democracia. […] Sospecho que era importante para él estar en Cúcuta en un momento tan crucial, para mostrar solidaridad. El Presidente Piñera puede haber pensado también que al apoyar a Guaidó también podría anotarse algunos puntos en Chile. […] Maduro es inmensamente impopular y Piñera quiso sacar ventaja en un momento de alto perfil para demostrar que está en el lado correcto.
Trump is not the best messenger to call for democracy in Venezuela, but in general, the Trump administration has been on the right side of this issue, recognizing that it is the most urgent in the Western Hemisphere. […] My concern is that they (members of the Trump administration) aren't really able to take advantage of this coalition because they have this over-the-top rhetoric and (issue) constant threats of invasion, and that doesn't make our Latin American or European allies comfortable.
The diaspora [from Venezuela] thinks they can just come and redo the country in a short period of time — it's just not going to be that way.