The Dialogue

É pouco provável que haja resultados tangíveis sobre a Venezuela. Mas não é só isso que importa. A reunião é uma oportunidade importante para continuar a construir consensos e estratégias de bastidores. O ambiente é realista e ciente dos inúmeros desafios e complicadas dinâmicas políticas.

É mau Trump estar a faltar. Mas tal não significa que a ida de Trump também não fosse provavelmente má, talvez até pior. Pelo menos, a sua cadeira vazia deixa a impressão que o problema é Trump, não os EUA como um todo. A ausência revela que a atual Administração é uma aberração na política externa norte-americana e não necessariamente uma realidade nova e duradoura.

A ausência de Trump é, sem sombra de dúvida, uma desfeita e um insulto. Mais, é emblemática da abdicação a longo prazo da tradicional posição dos EUA de liderança e compromisso no hemisfério por parte da Administração Trump.

[Die Amerika-Gipfel] war die beste Möglichkeit, endlich eine positive Agenda gegenüber Lateinamerika zu formulieren. Schließlich hat Trump mit seinen Mauerplänen an der Grenze zu Mexiko und seinem wirtschaftlichen Protektionismus viel Misstrauen in der Region geschürt.

Trump’s comments about possible U.S. military intervention in Venezuela still rankle across the region.

[The Summit] does present the U.S. and its official delegation leader, Pence, with a bushel of tough or potentially embarrassing issues. 

Peru has had five presidents since I lived there in the late '80s. And all of them have either been convicted, accused, or under investigation for corruption.

Latin Americans are much more independent, much more interconnected globally. I think if the U.S. puts them in the position of saying, 'Either you deal with us or you deal with China,' that's going to create real problems and even deepen the resentments in Latin America. They want to deal with both.

A decisão de Trump de não ir à Cúpula das Américas é uma demonstração de que a região não está no topo de suas preocupações. Isso mostra que a América Latina é uma prioridade de segunda ou terceira linha, se é que é uma prioridade. (...) O ponto central desse encontro era 'América Latina encontra Mister Trump em pessoa'.

When it comes to corruption, [leaders at the Summit] are going to have to finesse how do they talk about it seriously and keep a straight face. It’s a good topic, but not a good political moment for it.

The notion [from the first Summit of the Americas] of cementing some broad hemispheric consensus and putting 35 governments on the same page just isn’t going to happen in this day and age. The US has an important role to play, and the deterioration of relations with the region isn’t doomed to continue. But it’s safe to say a turnaround won’t come from some nostalgia for the Monroe Doctrine.

The summit Pence will attend does offer the US the chance to turn things around – for example by robust engagement in regional efforts to address the summit’s theme of battling corruption through strengthened democratic governance. The US could also enhance its image by spurring a cooperative regional approach to the Venezuelan crisis.

The US needs to understand that Latin America is not wild about the Chinese model, but the leaders do want to reduce poverty and deliver greater prosperity.

The truth is that if they have a choice, most in Latin America would prefer to deal with the US, certainly over China. The problem is that the US isn’t offering a lot in the way of investments and other incentives, and China is.

If [the US] goes down [to the Summit] with the traditional mindset that Latin America is ‘our’ sphere of influence, it’s going to repel the leaders at the summit and relations are going to continue to deteriorate. The administration needs to understand the realities in the region, among which is the dwindling influence of the United States.