La retórica agresiva de Trump contra Maduro continuará para buscar el voto del exilio venezolano y cubano, pero hasta ahora ha sido más teatro que resultados.
Press Mentions
Unas presidenciales [en Venezuela] son altamente improbables, sin señales de que los militares, uno de los principales apoyos de Maduro, estén listos para forzarlo a aceptarlas.
La capacidad de organizar protestas masivas [en Venezuela] sigue siendo limitada.
Maduro saw this as an opportunity to take over the only institution still widely regarded as legitimate. The international community will not recognize the new National Assembly.
La migración indocumentada por razones de trabajo continúa y cuando esta situación de contención se vaya normalizando creo que la gente va a seguir emigrando (porque) hay efectivamente una demanda de mano de obra en Estados Unidos (amplía).
Guaido remains the most popular political figure in Venezuela [but presidential elections this year are highly improbable as there is] no sign that the upper echelons of the military are ready to abandon Maduro.
Trump has seemingly lost some interest in Venezuela since last January. He was led to believe that Maduro's fall was imminent. Trump's aggressive rhetoric against Maduro will continue, [but only to galvanize support from Venezuelan and Cuban exiles in Florida opposed to the radical leftist regimes in their homelands.]
Some countries are approaching China with eyes wide open. They don’t want to repeat Sri Lanka´s predicament, where China’s involvement is seen as putting national autonomy is at stake.
Trump's decisions about what to do about Venezuela, will be the crucial element in 2020.
I would guess Maduro keeps hold of the government with the support of the military, while Guaido heads an opposition that remains divided on issues and strategy.
Se produce un temor en la población centroamericana de que la reunificación familiar no va a ser posible, entonces la gente empieza a salir en mayor número. Las caravanas aumentan a principios de 2018, pero sí son un fenómeno que tiene más de 10 años de existir, solo que eran (conformadas por) cantidades menores de personas.
There are three motives behind Trump's aggressive policy [towards Cuba]: Florida, where the votes of exiled Cubans could be decisive in the 2020 election, a "Cold War mentality" that seeks revenge for 60 years of Cuban socialism, and Havana's persistent support for Venezuela's socialist leader Nicolas Maduro. But the Cubans have their responsibility because they lost an opportunity when Obama opened up. Instead they hardened their position, they closed more, they became more repressive because they felt threatened.
El enfoque de mano dura [de Trump en su discurso hacia Cuba] funciona bien con muchos cubanoestadounidenses, un grupo de votantes muy influyente en la política de Florida.
Se distinguen três razões por trás da política agressiva de Donald Trump: Flórida, terra de exilados cubanos cortejada por ser decisiva para as eleições de 2020; uma "mentalidade de Guerra Fria" que busca vingança após 60 anos de socialismo em Cuba; e o apoio da ilha à Venezuela de Nicolás Maduro. Mas os cubanos têm uma parte de responsabilidade porque perderam a oportunidade da abertura com Obama. Pelo contrário, os mais conservadores em Cuba endureceram sua posição, fecharam-se mais, ficaram mais apreensivos porque se sentiram ameaçados.
Sanctions have created problems for the government but are also hurting the Venezuelan population which is already deep in pervasive poverty, hunger, lack of medicine, etc. I think the point is that you have to wait this one out and watch how this really evolves. You can’t press it very hard because it’s just going to make it worse for ordinary Venezuelans.