Inside Perspectives on Possible Scenarios in Venezuela


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The situation in Venezuela is the hemisphere’s direst economic and democratic governance crisis in recent memory. Widespread shortages of basic goods and medicines are contributing to a mounting humanitarian crisis, which in turn is fueling a mass exodus that has strained Venezuela’s neighbors. Inflation has reached five digits, and the oil sector—the lifeblood of the country’s economy—continues to deteriorate. Presidential elections scheduled for May 20th are broadly expected to be unfair and consolidate the rule of Nicolas Maduro.

In this context, the Dialogue is pleased to host a public presentation by the Grupo Experto para Venezuela (GEV), an initiative of the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT) that brings together a group of Venezuela based thought leaders and experts committed to the search for a peaceful and consensual solution to the country’s current crisis. Three members of the GEV will offer analysis of scenarios for the near term and their expected risks, opportunities, and trend lines.

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Margarita López Maya

Fellow, Center for Inter-American Policy and Research, Tulane University; Senior Professor-Researcher, Universidad Central de Venezuela (@mlopezmaya)

Michael Penfold

Full Professor of Political Economy and Governance, Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA) (@penfold_michael)

Orlando Ochoa

Independent economist and consultant (@OrlandoOchoa)


Michael Camilleri

Director, Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program, Inter-American Dialogue (@camillerimj)