China External Environment Monitor

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Institute of World Economics and Politics distributes a weekly China External Environment Monitor (CEEM). The document reviews economic news from developed countries （发达国家） and emerging markets （新兴市场）and determines whether listed news events will be positive (正面）or  negative （负面）for the Chinese economy (see far right column of the graph below).

 
The 2012 decline in Brazil’s net foreign exchange inflows received some attention in this week’s CEEM.  According to the report, the Brazilian Central Bank recently announced that the country’s net foreign exchange inflows in 2012 totaled $16.75 billion, a near 290 percent drop from the previous year’s $65.28 billion. The drop is due in part to a decline in Brazilian exports. In 2012, Brazil’s foreign trade surplus fell to $8.373 billion. In 2011, it was approximately $43.95 billion. Net investment inflows also decreased in 2012 to $8.38 billion from $21.329 billion in 2011. The CEEM indicates that this decline will have a negative impact on China’s economy, as it is likely to affect demand for Chinese exports.

Contributing to the 2012 decline was a net outflow of $6.76 billion from December 1-28 as multinational companies sent profits out of the country and holiday shopping stimulated imports, according to WSJ.com.  But just last week, the Brazilian real saw its strongest close against the dollar since early November, likely as a result of incoming revenue from Brazil’s largest exporters.

The following are global economic news items covered in this week’s CEEM.

Developed countries:

• Obama nominated Jack Lew as Treasury Secretary (TBD)
• Democratic senators called on Obama to take tough stance on debt ceiling (TBD)
• U.S. corn reserves at a 17-year record low (Negative)
• Two months of recovery for Eurozone economic confidence index (Positive)
• EU to develop entrepreneurship action plan to revive European economy (Positive)
• Decline in long-term bond yields in Spain and Italy (Positive)
• European Central Bank to maintain low interest rates but not stimulus measures (TBD)
• Japanese government introduced 20 trillion yen economic stimulus plan (TBD)

Emerging markets:

• Brazil 2012, the net foreign exchange inflows fell to four-year minimum (Negative)
• Shrinking industrial output in Eastern Europe but Romania has relatively good performance (TBD)
• China sees export growth of 14.1% in December 2012 and annual export growth of 7.9% (Positive)