Latin America Advisor

A Daily Publication of The Dialogue

Will Spain’s New Leader Change Latin America Policies?

Q: Mariano Rajoy is to be sworn in as Spain's new prime minister on Dec. 20. Rajoy's conservative Popular Party handily defeated the ruling Socialist Party in November elections. How will Rajoy's policies toward Latin America differ from those of his predecessor, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero? What are the most important parts of the relationships between Spain and Latin America, and will those relationships change under Rajoy's leadership?

A: Aurea Moltó, managing editor of Politica Exterior: "Managing the economic crisis and rebuilding Spain's position in the European Union will require an immense amount of political resources for Mariano Rajoy's government. Spain also has to pay attention to the wave of regime changes in the southern Mediterranean countries. In this context, Rajoy's policy toward Latin America will be conditioned by two realities; the reduced availability of economic resources and a no less significant loss of Spain's relative position in the region. In this sense, the Latin America that Rajoy finds in 2012 has nothing to do with that José María Aznar left in 2004. It is important that the ideological confrontations with Cuba and Venezuela give way to realistic policy in a region that could be the key for the recovery of Spain's economy and international image. Suffice it to say that the major Spanish companies in the finance, energy and telecommunications sectors are surviving the crisis thanks to their investments in Latin America, which are accounting for around 50 percent of profits. Rajoy is insisting on the importance of 're-anchoring' Spain in Latin America. In 2012, there are two meetings that will serve as the staging for a new Latin American policy; the EU-Latin America and Caribbean Summit, in the spring in Chile, and the Ibero-American Summit, in the autumn in Cadiz. Those who believe that Spain will bet on 'Europeanizing' Latin American policy (a definite boost to the E.U.-Mercosur agreement would be fundamental) are increasing and there is especially little doubt that the system of the Ibero-American Summits will change, in substance and in form. Spain has so much at play in Latin America and thus significant changes to the policy toward the region are not expected. Yes, in the medium term, a change in tone and abandonment of the more ideological aspects is foreseeable. A good starting point for Rajoy would be to go on a tour of Latin America in his first year."

A: Pablo Toral, associate professor of international relations at Beloit College: "We should expect more continuity than change because PP and PSOE have shared the same foreign policy principles since the 1980s: economic relations, democracy and human rights. Europe, Latin America, North America and the Mediterranean are, in descending order, the regions that will receive the most attention. PP and PSOE (and most Spanish political parties) regard the European Union as a guarantor of Spanish democracy and economic development. In 2012, Spain will try to play an active role in the discussions of the new E.U. treaty that will seek to get Europe out of the current sovereign crisis. Compliance with the new treaty will be the focus for the remainder of PP's legislature to guarantee Spain remains in the euro. Latin America will be a very distant second priority and the focus will be on economic cooperation (mainly promotion of trade relations and foreign direct investment) and the promotion of democracy and human rights. Jorge Moragas, career diplomat and member of the Spanish Congress representing Barcelona since 2004, is likely to become Spain's new foreign affairs minister. He will downplay political differences with Cuba and Venezuela (José María Aznar's relations with both regimes were rocky) to focus on economic issues, especially if Cuba continues the path of economic reform. Moragas will also try to revitalize the Ibero-American summits by turning these meetings into a biannual event that will focus on Spain's role as 'Latin America's voice' in the European Union."

A: Joaquín Roy, Jean Monnet chair 'ad personam' and director of the European Union Center of Excellence: "The election of Mariano Rajoy as new prime minister of Spain on Nov. 20 has attracted the attention of Latin American media and governments regarding a possible change of policy toward the area. This expectation is understandable on two grounds. First, a new conservative government in Spain will have to deal with a majority of leaders in Latin America that can be considered in variable degrees as 'progressives,' leftists, populists or plain Marxists. The second reason is the close relationship between Spain and Latin America in terms of investment (first in some countries), trade, development aid (Spanish and the European Union's) and migration. From being a country that generated emigrants predominantly to Latin America, Spain has recently became a recipient of immigrants in great numbers from the former overseas colonies. The current economic crisis in Europe, with serious effects in Spain, is causing a return of a number of Latin American immigrants with considerable impact on the local economies because of the loss of remittances. The crisis will also have an impact on Spanish investments in Latin America, taking into account that the region has provided a high percentage of the profits of Spanish transnationals in sensitive areas such as banking and communications. Spanish companies will try to maintain their presence at all cost. In consequence, the new Madrid government will be very careful to not antagonize any of the Latin American governments showing a left-leaning profile. This is especially applicable to Spain's relations with Venezuela and Cuba. It is not expected that a hard-line attitude will be taken by Rajoy, beyond verbal cosmetic declarations and the expected maintenance of the European Union's Common Position on the Castro regime."

A: Ángel Bermúdez, associate researcher at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: "The People's Party's return to power happened in a context that is radically different to that of 2004, when José María Aznar left Moncloa Palace. Regarding relations with Latin America, there are two elements that mark the new situation: the international economic crisis that has hit Spain severely but not Latin America and China's emergence as an important actor that mounts positions not just as a commercial partner but also as a leading investor in the region. The economic crisis has weakened Spain's image in Latin America and limited its room to maneuver in foreign policy. The country's foreign policy should now place greater emphasis on economic diplomacy to help strengthen the presence of Spanish multinationals in the region, which in the past few years have increased their profits from Chile, Peru, Colombia and Brazil, while reducing their business in the Spanish market and even in Europe. These circumstances envisage that Rajoy will carry out a discrete foreign policy, avoid polemical policies and guarantee an ongoing dialogue with Latin American economies. Helping to shore up positions captured by Spanish companies, and even supporting a new wave of investments in Latin America, would be a policy that would stand up even to the challenge of China and at the same time, breathe a new lease on Spain's own economy, which would see growth in its external sector."