Latin America Advisor

A Daily Publication of The Dialogue

What has Colombia’s Santos Achieved in his First Year?

Q: Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos last week completed his first year in office. A poll released July 31 by Ipsos Napoleon Franco showed Santos has an approval rating of 71 percent. What is behind Santos' high approval rating, and will he be able to sustain it? What have been the major achievements of his first year as president? What have been his failures or shortcomings since taking office? A: Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue: "In his first year in office, Santos achieved the right measure of continuity and change, reflecting an astute reading of the public mood in Colombia. He showed that he is fundamentally a pragmatist. His widespread support in the country and Congress enabled him to pass an ambitious legislative agenda, including the Victims Law-a long-term measure with financial implications whose implementation is fraught with political and practical obstacles. Santos has reclaimed Colombia's strong reformist tradition. In foreign policy, too, the Santos administration has set a sharply different course from the preceding Uribe government, which was often seen as doing Washington's bidding and sometimes found itself on the margins of political deliberations in South America. To date, all of Santos's moves-from easing tensions with Venezuela and Ecuador to brokering a deal on Honduras to deepening ties with Brazil and seeking to exercise leadership in Unasur-have borne fruit. It is reasonable to suppose that Santos would like to be remembered as the Colombian president responsible for ending his country's armed conflict. That is an irresistible legacy for any Colombian leader. Aware of the risks involved, however, Santos appears to be moving deliberately and cautiously on that front. Security remains a concern. The country's growing criminal bands are a problem, and the FARC, though weakened, are still a force to be reckoned with. Santos is off to an impressive start, but given Colombia's continuing challenges it won't be easy to sustain such a record for the rest of his term." A: Jorge Lara Urbaneja, international business consultant based in Bogotá: "Juan Manuel Santos has been very successful in handling institutional and human relations, which relate to his government. He reversed internal and external bitter trends in the region, particularly with Ecuador and Venezuela, as he needed in order to develop Colombia's geopolitical potential, his long term goal. The results are there. President Santos (with the outstanding participation of Foreign Minister Holguín) has opened external possibilities that looked remote a year ago. He also seeks to re-establish the country's social structures affected by years of uncontrolled violence. To accomplish this, his government has undertaken a comprehensive reform of the judicial system, not only redefining the role of judges, prosecutors and courts, but also of emblematic institutions such as the attorney general, the Supreme Court, the Council of State and Congress. For this complex and cumbersome task, President Santos has the best possible team, headed by ministers Vargas and Esguerra. The implementation and practical application of the so-called land law (returning lands usurped by mafias to small farmers) constitutes another major task. Although fully justifiable, the interpretation and application of this law may lead to corruption and extortion. Any negative results would reverse Santos' accomplishments and high approval rates, particularly because they would have severe social repercussions. There are also external circumstances affecting his government and Colombia over which he has no control, such as world economic problems that are not always handled in the best way." A: Andy Webb-Vidal, CEO of Latin-IQ Corporation, a business risk consultancy: "That Juan Manuel Santos has completed his first year in office with such a high approval rating is surprising since there have been few major accomplishments to date. To be sure, the slaying of the FARC's military commander Mono Jojoy was significant, and there is no doubt that Santos has presided over a marked improvement in Colombia's foreign relations-most visibly with Venezuela. Yet despite Santos' considerable experience in defense matters, real progress on the counter-insurgency front is uninspiring. Efforts to capture the FARC's supreme commander Alfonso Cano have been hampered by intense inter-force rivalry, and it has been rumored for weeks that Defense Minister Rodrigo Rivera will be the first casualty in an impending cabinet reshuffle. Recent opinion polls also indicate deteriorating public security in Bogotá and other major cities. In addition, Santos has seen several corruption scandals surface during his first year in office, even if these have not been of his making: the removal of the mayor of Bogotá, financial scandals among healthcare providers and serious irregularities within the customs agency. Future scandals are more likely to besmirch his administration than these recent cases. Finally, there is a palpable perception that Colombia's mainstream media have gone soft or, worse still, have become pliable to government influence: they are today a pale shadow of the vigor they displayed during the Álvaro Uribe years. That may in part explain Santos' sustained popularity so far, but his honeymoon is likely to end sooner than expected." A: Myles Frechette, international trade and business consultant and former U.S. ambassador to Colombia: "Juan Manuel Santos' political skills and a statesman-like image account for his wide appeal. He delegates responsibility and has time for friends and family. Santos has enjoyed a honeymoon with the media and offers a sharp contrast to his charismatic predecessor, Álvaro Uribe. Santos inherited a troublesome legacy: corruption in the executive branch and in Congress; a failing, corrupt health system; increasing concern about common crime in urban areas and continued guerrilla attacks; isolation in South America and opposition on Capitol Hill to a trade promotion agreement. He has engaged in a dialogue with the courts to erase Uribe's abrasive legacy. He cultivates Uribe supporters. He has had an ambitious and successful legislative agenda, and enjoys support from 90 percent of the Colombian Congress. He vigorously attacks corruption. Two of his prominent legislative victories provide compensation to victims of violence and restore stolen land to its rightful owners. Colombia's foreign policy is now pragmatic and global. Not only did Santos achieve détente with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez days after assuming office, he has demonstrated regional leadership. He and Chávez helped Honduras rejoin the Organization of American States in May. In July, Santos proposed that the Union of South American Nations take steps together to deal with appreciation of local currencies and devaluation of the dollar. However, Santos' administration lacks resources to carry out his many initiatives. Also, the Colombian police and army still fall short in halting increased urban crime and continued guerilla audacity. Nevertheless, barring a major failure, his popularity will continue."

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