The Implications of Argentina’s Elections

Rama / CC BY-SA 2.0 FR
President Juan Perón once said, “Peronists are like cats – when everyone thinks they are fighting, they are in fact reproducing.” As Argentina’s midterm election approach, the quotation is timely. While many expect the ruling faction of peronism to do poorly in the upcoming midterms, few doubt that peronists will lose the presidency or control of congress in the foreseeable future. To shed light on the subject, the Dialogue welcomed Daniel Kerner, who heads the Eurasia Group’s Latin America practice and tracks Argentina closely, along with Ernesto Calvo, associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland, who writes widely on Argentine politics. Panelists discussed the current economic and political climate in Argentina, issues on the minds of voters, the Cristina Kirchner administration, and the possible scenarios for the 2015 presidential elections. Although Argentina is experiencing an economic slowdown, both panelists predicted that the midterm elections were unlikely to alter Kirchner’s economic policies over the next two years. Kerner explained that the economy has two main structural problems: declining energy production and high inflation. The decline in energy production caused the need for expensive energy alternatives, which then led to a deterioration if the fiscal system and a tightening of capital controls. These factors in turn aggravated the inflation problem even more. Until now, the government’s response to these problems has been reactive policies decided by a select few officials close to Kirchner. Kerner believes that these problems will not get better, and that the government will most likely take steps to further its control over the economy. Despite this, Kerner stated that Argentina’s economic conditions are not as dire as some people assume, and added that he does not predict another economic crisis like that of 2001. He said that the difference now is that there are many more degrees of policy freedom that allow for necessary adjustments. Calvo agreed that while the economic climate is not ideal, it is durable. The upcoming midterm elections have the potential to shape the outcome of the future presidential elections. Calvo predicted that strong Peronist candidates will be the current government’s main competition. He added that these candidates would be to the right of Kirchner. Sergio Massa, Kirchner’s former cabinet chief and mayor of Tigre, is the most competitive peronist candidate at this point. As for the outlook to the presidential elections, Calvo said that the government does not have the ability to control the succession, but it does have the ability to control who will not succeed Kirchner. This will be the most important thing to follow after the midterm elections. Calvo said that the primaries in Argentina can be used in two different ways: for the peronists, they can be used as a mechanism to discipline the party. For the opposition, they can function as a way to bring together different factions. It will be interesting to see if the parties will use the primaries to these advantages. Panelists had a generally positive outlook on the future implications of the elections in Argentina. They believe that the economic slowdown is the main source of all other problems, both foreign and domestic, but that it is manageable. They added that Argentina’s main focus in terms of foreign policy is that with its neighboring countries, and they do not foresee any major upcoming conflicts. The Argentine political system is dominated by peronist forces, and their power will most likely prevail in the elections. The opposition is at a disadvantage competing against the government, which is in a much better position to dominate the policy arena, particularly on social issues which appeal to voters. In the next two years Kirchner will continue her interventionist economic policies, and future policies after the presidential elections will probably be more moderate. It is clear that Argentina’s political system is weaker than previous years, but according to Kerner and Calvo, it is navigable.

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