Bolivians on Sunday appeared to have rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that would have allowed President Evo Morales to run for an unprecedented fourth term in office. What does the vote say about Bolivians’ view of Morales and about the state of the country’s democracy? What will be the impact on Morales’ remaining time in office? Will it be harder now for Morales to push through his agenda while he is still in the presidency?

Peter M. Siavelis, professor in the department of politics and international affairs, and director of the Latin American and Latino Studies Program at Wake Forest University: "Ultimately, the outcome of this vote is healthy for Bolivian democracy. Though the results surely dealt a stinging blow to Morales, one should not consider the outcome a rebuke of the Morales government, nor count the powerful and charismatic leader out of the future of Bolivian politics. Morales is the longest-serving president in Bolivian history and has presided over substantial economic and social transformations. Total GDP has increased almost fourfold since he took office, economic growth has averaged 5 percent per year, and he has remade the economy—all while challenging neoliberal orthodoxy. Widespread social reforms have been lauded by peasants and the working class, despite the Bolivian middle classes’ contention that their standard of living has deteriorated. For the first time in the country’s history, traditionally excluded groups have a voice in Bolivian politics. In this sense, those who voted against Morales should not necessarily be seen as opponents of him or his MAS government. Rather, many Bolivians had voiced repeated concerns about an apparent slide toward single-man and single-party rule. In addition, part of the result is explained by Morales’ falling victim to tendencies seen throughout Latin America, and particularly those that have plagued governments of the left from Argentina to Chile to Brazil. The combination of falling commodity prices, disgust with the status quo and a sense of endemic corruption have eaten away at Morales’ popularity. Still, he has plenty of time before the next election to aggressively pursue his own policy agenda and designate a successor. Even without a fourth term, Morales’ continuing power and popularity will enable him to continue to cast a long shadow over Bolivian politics.”

Iván C. Rebolledo, managing partner of TerraNova Strategic Partners LLC and president of the Bolivian-American Chamber of Commerce: "As of this moment, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has yet to officially announce the results yesterday’s referendum vote. However, the fact that vote is so close—with 87 percent of the ballots tallied—demonstrates that Evo Morales and his MAS party might have overstayed their welcome. They are hoping that the rural and foreign vote will give them the victory, but it seems increasingly unlikely as each moment passes. Undoubtedly, this would be an enormous blow to the governing party: its first loss in 10 years. Last week’s deaths in El Alto during a protest in which some suspected foul play, and Morales’ own personal scandal involving the mother of his deceased child and her lucrative ties to a Chinese state company that have recently won large government contracts, have both greatly damaged his reputation as a crusader against corruption. It is clear that Morales still enjoys enormous popularity in the country, but there is a difference between liking him and wanting him to continue in office. The social and indigenous movements have been clearly bothered by recent occurrences, and Morales has lost the support of important trade unions. It would be a good first step if the government accepts defeat in this referendum, which would demonstrate Morales’ respect for democracy (at least relating to this past referendum). But what follows in the next four years will be critical to his legacy and whether we will see more rampant corruption in Bolivia. The uncertain economic future of the country, based on falling raw commodities and natural gas prices, will have great weight on Morales and how he continues to govern, as well as on the fact that many of his traditional supporters will evaporate, and the opposition has already begun to gain further traction and relevance. Based on the referendum, it is clear that Bolivia is still a divided nation.”

Jaime Aparicio-Otero, former Bolivian ambassador to the United States: "Sunday was an extraordinary day for Bolivian democracy. Voters rejected Evo Morales´ fourth re-election. One does not have to look far for reasons why people are angry. A sequence of acts of corruption and violence spawned the circumstances for a perfect storm: First, a corruption scandal in the disbursements of the Indigenous Fund, involving private bank accounts of government officials and close allies to Morales’ party; Second, a well-known journalist unveiled a case of influence-peddling linked to multimillion-dollar state contracts in obscure conditions, between the government and a state-owned Chinese construction firm in which, coincidentally, Morales’ ex-girlfriend holds a top post. Third, two days before the referendum, six people died in Bolivia after a crowd of protesters linked to Morales’ party set fire to town hall building in El Alto. After the defeat, Bolivia´s crisis will probably get worse before it gets better. The biggest challenge in the coming months will derive from the economic crisis that inevitably is going to affect Bolivia. Given that Bolivia is mostly dependent on exports of raw materials, especially gas, it has one of the region’s lowest levels of productivity. Another concern is the continued appreciation of the real exchange rate. The depreciation of the currencies of neighboring countries can affect the competitiveness of Bolivian exports. Difficult times are coming for the government. Unfortunately, we now know that the ‘process of change’ that Morales promised only worked for the personal benefit of the new ruling class.”

Joydeep Mukherji, managing director of Latin American Sovereign Ratings at Standard & Poor’s in New York: "The narrow rejection of the re-election amendment does not represent a direct rejection of President Evo Morales, who has run the country since 2006. Rising living standards and a historic shift in political power toward Bolivia’s large indigenous community have sustained the Morales administration’s popularity. However, even the overwhelming political power of MAS and the continued popularity of Morales were insufficient to convince most Bolivians to remove institutional caps on presidential continuity. The results will boost the morale of Bolivia’s divided opposition movements and lead to some introspection within MAS. However, the opposition is not likely to present a serious challenge to the government, which was easily re-elected in 2014, absent economic deterioration that erodes MAS’ strong base of support, especially among the indigenous population. Low export prices for natural gas pose a difficult economic challenge for the government. It remains to be seen if the election results will restrain the government from making policy adjustments to cope with this economic reality. The results pose a dilemma for MAS. Morales remains more popular than his party. He is also the crucial figure who unites the various social movements and organizations that comprise MAS, a coalition with diverse interests and sometimes conflicting views. It is difficult to imagine MAS without Morales at the helm. Morales has to decide whether to follow Rafael Correa in Ecuador and leave office when this term ends, or seek to overturn the referendum verdict."

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