Guatemala’s Electoral Outlook

Despite unprecedented levels of voter participation, Guatemala’s electoral outlook reveals persistent weaknesses in the country’s young democratic structures, argued Eduardo Stein, former vice president of Guatemala and head of the Central American think tank network, La Red Centroamericana de Centros de Pensamiento e Incidencia. Stein discussed the second round of the presidential contest set to take place on November 6, along with the challenges the new president will face at an Inter-American Dialogue event held on October 26. In the first round of elections on September 11, no candidate received the necessary 50 percent to win outright, leading to the upcoming run off between the top two vote-getters: former army general Otto Pérez Molina of the Partido Patriota (PP) and businessman Manuel Baldizón of the Libertad Democrática Renovada party (LIDER). The first round saw the highest voter participation rate (69 percent) that Guatemala has witnessed in recent history, even slightly edging out figures from the 1985 election that initiated the country’s return to democratic rule following over three decades of military dictatorship. Yet Stein was cautious in viewing this increased participation as evidence of significant democratic progress. Although Guatemala has seen some improvements in public institutions and finances, its political party system is highly fragmented, and its citizenry remains disillusioned by widespread corruption and “the unsatisfactory performance of politicians.” “Guatemalan citizens still see democracy as the optimal political system,” noted Stein, “but they are fed up with their own.” One clear sign of voter disenchantment in the first round was the 12 percent of ballots that were spoiled or left blank. Stein also suggested that the candidates themselves reflect the “contradictions” of Guatemalan political culture. Baldizón, seen as the contender more sensitive to an inclusive social agenda, has proposed a flat tax, which would reduce state revenues available for social programs, while Pérez, viewed as the representative of the private sector, has committed himself to fiscal reform designed to increase revenues. These “ideological and programmatic inconsistencies” are evidence of a system “still very determined by preferences of caudillos and dependent on personalities,” Stein remarked. Though Pérez maintains a 10 percent lead in most polls, Stein refused to offer his prediction because of how the first round results were grossly miscalculated by polling companies. He did, however, argue that because of political divisions within the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), if the vote count is close, it may be discredited as fraudulent by the population. Questions have been raised about the removal of several rural voting sites which will now be concentrated in 25 municipal centers, a move deemed necessary by the TSE because of electoral violence, but one which could restrict voting access for many indigenous communities. Whichever candidate is sworn in on January 14, 2012 will face serious obstacles in getting Guatemala on the right track. Weak infrastructure, a fiscal deficit, and a possible famine following the devastation left by recent flooding are just a few. But foremost on the minds of Guatemalans is the surge in violent crime by youth gangs, drug-trafficking organizations, and other illicit groups. Stein cautioned that the territorial reach of such criminal organizations could intensify if they take advantage of the social conflicts brewing across the countryside, which have pitted the Guatemalan state against local communities fighting to maintain control of the natural resources on their lands. “Organized crime and these local groups have not become allies, yet,” he warned, “but the phenomenon is worrisome.”