Does Rousseff Have Enough Support?

Jonas Pereira / Agência Senado / CC BY 2.0

Q: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff announced April 30 that her government would increase payments to the poor through the Bolsa Família welfare program and also would lower some income taxes. The announcement came as Rousseff tries to reverse slipping support ahead of the October presidential election in which she is seeking another term in office. How much support will the announcement win for Rousseff at the polls? What else must she do in order to strengthen her candidacy? What factors between now and October will influence the election? How are Rousseff's rival presidential candidates faring ahead of the vote?

A: Roberto Teixeira da Costa, board member of SulAmérica in São Paulo: "Some months ago, Dilma Rousseff's re-election was considered a fait accompli. However, the latest polls show that her advantage over Aécio Neves of the PSDB and Eduardo Campos of the PSB is diminishing. Political analysts indicate that the approval rating required for a president to be re-elected in the first round is between 40 and 43 percent. The latest polls released on May 9 show that Ms. Rousseff's approval rating has decreased to 35 percent. However, she still leads with 37 percent of voting intentions ahead of Aécio with 20 percent and Eduardo Campos with 11 percent. According to the same polls, in a second round, Ms. Rousseff would receive 47 percent of the vote against 36 percent for Aécio. Fifty-four percent of the individuals surveyed said they could still change their mind. An important factor to note is the World Cup. It is possible that new street protests and riots against the World Cup will take place during the tournament. Certainly, this is an additional challenge to the government and to Ms. Rousseff's re-election bid. The overall performance of the economy, including adequate control of inflation levels and employment rates, could also affect the election. Despite the positive momentum for the opposition, one should not forget that the election campaign has yet to begin and that Ms. Rousseff's Workers' Party will enjoy a significant advantage as it is expected to secure rights to twice as much free national TV and radio air time as any of its opponents. Chances for a second round seem concrete. In this case, the number of votes a runner-up receives in the first round and his or her ability to form coalitions with third parties could prove decisive factors. A new Congress and governors will also be elected in October. If Brazilians want change, they should not forget that a strong Congress and committed politicians will be needed to support it."

A: Gilberto Rodrigues, professor at the Universidade Federal do ABC in São Paulo and board member of the Coordinadora Regional de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales in Buenos Aires: "The Bolsa Família increase is far from being a central issue in the electoral campaign. The key issue is the very maintenance of the Bolsa Família by Rousseff's rivals. The two main opposition candidates have different positions: Eduardo Campos of the PSB already has said he will keep it. Aécio Neves of the PSDB is still ambiguous, but members of his party have heavily criticized the program. In fact, it would be difficult for the opposition to gain votes among the poorest without clearly supporting the Bolsa Família, which generates a huge positive impact as a social program and has been internationally awarded and recommended by United Nations agencies. Regarding the adjustment of income taxes to inflation, this decision will take effect in 2015, and its present impact is almost zero, if not negative for the perception of the middle class, a segment of the population much more affected by the burdens of many taxes. There is no doubt that the strength of Rousseff's government is a set of social programs, some from Lula's administration, others brand new--related to basic income, health, education and housing for the poorest. In this field, the rivals have not yet done their homework and must be very creative to offer better and credible alternatives."

A: Melvyn Levitsky, professor of international policy and practice at the University of Michigan's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy and former U.S. ambassador to Brazil: "Growth is down, inflation and unemployment are up, and corruption in the Workers' Party continues to make headlines. It's no wonder that President Dilma's standing has suffered. The latest polls indicate that her popularity, which ranged from 50-60 percent a year ago, has now plummeted to the mid-to-upper 30 percent range among Brazilians. Her principal opponents, former Pernambuco Governor and Socialist Party leader Eduardo Campos and Social Democrat Senator Aécio Neves have gained support at Dilma's expense. However, neither has reached half her popularity in percentage terms according to the polls My sense is that Dilma fears Campos more than Neves because both he and she appeal to the same lower and lower middle class constituencies. Campos will also have the popular (especially among the poor) Senator Marina Silva as his running mate, which makes him a contender for Dilma's base, especially in the northeast of Brazil. Making it clear that the increase in the Bolsa Família (whose small subsidies reportedly reach up to 15 million poor Brazilian families) was election-related, Dilma's party pressed the slogan, 'beware a return to the past' shortly after the announcement was made. Recognizing the message, Campos termed this 'electoral terrorism' and proclaimed that no one would end the Bolsa Família program. Neves claimed the real problem was inefficiency and poor management of public resources by the Dilma government and said it was incredible that Brazil had the lowest growth rate in Latin America. It is unlikely that growth, employment and inflation will improve much before October. However, Brazilian presidents have considerable ability to prime the pump and flow money to strategic electoral sectors and influential state governors. A runoff between the two top vote-getters in the October election is expected. Dilma will certainly be favored to win, but much can happen in the interim. It's still too early to make a confident prediction of the outcome."

A: Joel Korn, president of WKI Brasil: "Virtually all the participants of the Bolsa Família welfare program are supporters of President Dilma Rousseff. While the program's beneficiaries will welcome the increased payments, the measure announced will add few new voters. Rousseff's candidacy is challenged by mediocre economic performance, inflationary pressures and a series of scandals and mismanagement involving the federal government and state-controlled companies, such as Petrobras. Although recent declines in her support appear to have leveled off, the number of undecided and disenchanted voters is significant. Rousseff--and the opposition candidates--will need to work hard to capture support. To this end, the president, backed by the administration's 'machinery,' will need to further strengthen the ties with the parties that form the government's political alliance. Execution, as always, is key. The negative implications of low economic growth could be countered by the successful results of social policies and the growing consumer class. The effects of publicly known corruption on public opinion and how effectively the opposition will play that issue before voters are yet to be seen. Many believe that Brazil's performance in the World Cup will be an important contributing factor. What may happen outside the stadiums, such as increased number of street demonstrations, may have meaningful implications. Rival candidates Aécio Neves and Eduardo Campos have a long way to go despite their recent improvements in the polls. As first-time presidential candidates, they need to get better known throughout the country and be able to convince the large and growing contingent of disenchanted voters that there are politicians who can be well-aligned with their constituencies' aspirations, despite the current negative image of the political class."


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