A Very Full Year of Elections

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Rama / CC BY-SA 2.0 FR

In the year-long period from November 2013 to November 2014, presidential elections will occur in nine Latin American countries—half the nations of the region. Six of the elections have already taken place— in the four Central American republics of Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Panama, and in Chile and Colombia. The three remaining elections, in Brazil, Uruguay, and Bolivia, are scheduled for October.

Most of the elections have been or, according to available polling data, will turn out to be highly competitive. So far, the party in power has won only two of the completed elections—in El Salvador and Colombia. In the four others, the candidate of the opposition emerged triumphant. In all three of the forthcoming elections, however, the governing party is today leading in polls, so the trend of opposition victories appears likely to end. Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff faces the toughest battle for reelection.

At this point, the region’s politics appears to have shifted modestly to the left. Two of the regions most powerful conservative parties—in Chile and El Salvador—suffered major defeats. Only three small countries today have clearly conservative presidents, Panama, Paraguay, and Honduras. Eleven of the remaining 15 governments can be described as left or center- left, while four (Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Guatemala) are solidly centrist. Still, while some political realignments and economic adjustments can be expected, no dramatic changes in policy direction are likely. In Latin America, a change in president and party is no longer necessarily followed by major political or economic alterations.

What this year’s elections particularly underscore is that re-election is rarely denied to current or expresidents in Latin America. Former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet won overwhelmingly. Colombian head of state Juan Manual Santos was almost toppled, but managed to hold onto the office. In the three elections later this year, one former president, Tabare Vasquez, and two current presidents, Dilma Rousseff and Evo Morales, are all leading in the polls.

Only one genuine outsider has won an election so far this year —Luis Guillermo Solis of the Costa Rican Citizen Action Party (PAC). Indeed virtually every serious candidate in all nine elections was a senior elected official, a high ranking party leader, or a relative or close associate of the current or a former president. Candidates in Uruguay, for example, are an ex-president and the sons of two former presidents. Interestingly, none of the election results was seriously contested. Although complaints of irregularities were common, nowhere did they produce a significant political challenge to the declared winner— despite the narrow margins of victory in several countries.

Colombia

The most important election to date was in Colombia where President Juan Manual Santos finally triumphed over former president Uribe’s hand picked candidate, Oscar Zuluaga, who had bested Santos in the first round of voting. The Santos victory was an uphill battle, as the still highly popular Uribe led a relentless campaign to oust Santos from office and bring the Colombian government’s ongoing peace negotiations with the FARC guerrillas to a halt. With agreements already reached on three of five critical agenda items, the prospects are good that the negotiations will now lead to an accord to end the country’s fifty year old internal war. A Zuluaga victory, besides upending the negotiations, would likely have led to increased tensions with Venezuela and other neighbors of Colombia, who support the peace process and distrust Uribe. The former president, however, still has a strong and loyal following in Colombia will continue to wield considerable political influence as a senator leading a sizable opposition bloc . President Santos starts off his second term with a far smaller majority in Congress than he had four years ago.

Costa Rica

The usually predictable Costa Rica produced the biggest electoral surprise this year. Luis Guillermo Solis was a political unknown representing a relatively new center-left party that was competing for the presidency for only the third time. He easily beat the favored candidate of exPresident Oscar Arias’s party, formerly the mayor Costa Rica’s capital, San Jose. The election of Solis was a clear call for change in Costa Rica, even though the country’s economic performance was among the best in Latin America. Costa Ricans were unhappy with their traditional politics and unresponsive political institutions—but they wanted change, not disruption or even discontinuity. And that is what Solis promised. He is a pragmatic leader, who called for faster growth through foreign investment and conventional economic policies, but with increased attention to poverty and inequality and a stepped up campaign against corruption. Nothing particularly dramatic. His biggest challenges will be to gain approval of his program in congress, where he commands only a minority of seats, and to maintain discipline within his own diverse, often unruly party

El Salvador

In El Salvador, the FMLN captured its second presidential election—again beating back the traditional rightist political party, ARENA, which had long governed the country. The winning candidate this time, however, was former guerrilla commander Sanchez Ceren, not a more moderate ally of the FMLN, like his predecessor, Mauricio Funes. Although alarms were sounded about the “hard left” leanings of Sanchez Ceren by US conservatives, he appears committed to maintaining El Salvador’s traditional good relations with the US. He made an early pre-inauguration trip to the US to meet with Secretary of State John Kerry. He and his FMLN allies are acutely aware of how vital the link to Washington is, given the huge numbers of Salvadorans living in the US, the remittances they send home, and the hefty amounts of security and development aid the US government provides. Sanchez Ceren, however, has also promised to strengthen his ties to Venezuela, a move unlikely to be welcomed in Washington.

Honduras

To no one’s great surprise, Hondurans elected a conservative political and business leader as president defeating the wife of former leftist President Manuel Zelaya, who was widely regarded a stand in for her husband. Honduras remains one of the Latin America’s poorest and most precarious countries, with one of the world’s highest homicide rates. Washington exercises a huge influence here. No one expects much change in the coming period.

Panama

Panamanian President Martinelli, constitutionally restricted to one term in office, sought to perpetuate himself in power by selecting a close aide as his party’s candidate for president and putting his wife on the ticket as vice-presidential candidate. Despite Panama’s impressive growth rates (the highest in Latin America) and the progress made toward completing the massive expansion of the Panama Canal during his presidency, Martinelli’s candidate lost the election to vice president Juan Carlos Varela. It was early in Martinelli’s term that he and Varela had parted ways and become political adversaries. Most Panamanians apparently had justifiably come to view Martinelli as an autocratic and corrupt ruler, with little concern about democratic principles or procedures. New President Varela’s challenge will be to sustain the country’s rapid growth of recent years, while doing more to reduce extensive poverty and rebuild confidence in Panama’s institutions. It will not be an easy task with Matinelli’s party holding a majority in congress.

Chile

Former president Bachelet’s sweeping victory in Chile was readily predictable, particularly after the National Alliance’s initial candidate dropped out for health reasons and was replaced by a relatively weak alternative, Evelyn Matthei. Despite the economy’s strong performance under the conservative government of Sebastian Pinera, there was not much of a chance of defeating Bachelet--who left office four years earlier as one of Chile’s most popular president s ever.

Bachelet, however, may have a hard time meeting the expectations her re-election has created. Her most difficult challenge will be the reform of the country’s widely criticized education system, a frequent target of mass student protests. She has pledged both to ratchet up the quality of education, and turn it into a clear force for equality and social mobility. Other promises were to raise corporate taxes (mostly to fund educational initiatives) and to initiate long-awaited political and legal reforms. An adjustment in foreign policy may also be in the cards, especially to restore closer relations with Brazil and build greater cooperation in an increasingly divided Latin America. At same time, the new president will be expected to sustain Chile’s exceptional economic progress on so many fronts.

The three remaining presidential elections, in Bolivia, Brazil, and Uruguay, are scheduled for October. Two sitting presidents and one ex-president are seeking re-election, and are all currently ahead in the polls.

Bolivia

Indigenous President Evo Morales, who has been serving since 2006 is almost certain to be reelected for a third term. Since the new Bolivian constitution imposes a two term limit for the head of state, his candidacy has been widely questioned. According to Bolivia’s not quite independent electoral court, however, the president was eligible to run because his initial election took place before the document was approved. Although his popular support has slipped since his last campaign, Morales has no serious rival in the upcoming race and he will almost surely retain his hold on the presidency. No significant changes are expected in government policy. The country is likely to remain politically polarized and continue as a close ally of Venezuela and Ecuador, with little improvement in its fractious relations with the US. Forecasts suggest that the economy will continue on a reasonably healthy trajectory.

Uruguay

Like Michelle Bachelet, former Uruguayan president Tabare Vazquez will be running for a second term, after leaving office four years ago as constitutionally mandated. Vazquez was a popular and respected president and he currently holds a commanding lead over his two main rivals—but his reelection is far from assured. National Party Candidate, Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou (the son of former president Luis Alberto Lacalle), may be an attractive alternative, particularly since the Broad Front has already held the presidency for two terms and its leadership has aged, while Lacalle represents a new generation. There is no question, however, that the Front has governed with considerable success. The Uruguayan economy, under the direction of Danilo Astori, currently vice president and formerly finance minister, has performed exceptionally well. Moreover, the country now has the most progressive social legislation in Latin America. It was current president Jose Mujica, who oversaw the legalization of abortion, gay marriage, and casual marijuana use, although these initiatives are by far from universally popular in the country.

Brazil

Given the country’s size along with its regional and global influence, the Brazilian election is widely viewed as Latin America’s most consequential this year. As the hand-picked successor of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the country’s most popular politician ever, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff won her first election relatively easily. She assumed office in January 2011, virtually at the peak of Brazil’s meteoric rise. Despite a slowing economy from the outset of her term, she remained popular, carried along by a combination of sheer momentum, low unemployment, and her predecessor’s consistent support. In June 2013, however, massive protests erupted throughout the country demanding reform of Brazil’s notoriously deficient public services and a halt to lavish, often corrupt government spending.

The president’s support sunk rapidly from high of over 60 percent to around 30 percent, where it is today. Yet, she still leads all other candidates, and with Lula da Silva providing a strong tailwind, she remains favored to gain re-election this October. Many things, however, could derail President Rousseff’s drive for a second term—for example, a surge in inflation or unemployment, an extended energy shortage, mishandling of street protests, replays of recent political scandals, or a poor campaign performance. Despite the Brazilian team’s meltdown in the final rounds, Rousseff has weathered the challenges posed by World Cup and may have even gained some ground—as the month-long event was managed far better than anyone expected.

If Rousseff falters, the likely winner will be Aecio Neves, the candidate of the PSDB, the Social Democratic Party of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. If that were to occur changes in policy would almost surely follow, although it is difficult to predict how dramatic the shifts might be. Brazil’s erratic, slow moving political institutions and its sluggish bureaucracies stand in the way of rapid or disruptive change—which, at times, has been fortunate for country. There is, however, a likely turn toward a more open economy with less state direction and management, although with continued emphasis on poverty reduction and social development. In foreign policy, Brazil will remain a largely independent actor, but one that could well pursue closer ties with the US and be less accommodating to Venezuela and its allies in Latin America.

Whoever wins the October election will have to face Brazil’s long-term structural deficits, which have become obvious to even the casual observer--a badly functioning judicial system; deteriorated infrastructure; wasteful and regressive taxes and regulations; mediocre schools and universities; and myriad barriers to trade, investment, and innovation. These are challenges have remained largely intractable even to Brazil’s most successful presidents.