Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, or CNE, on Aug. 9 released the tentative schedule for a recall referendum, which opposition lawmakers say has delayed the vote long enough so that the ruling party will stay in power regardless of the referendum’s outcome. If the vote takes place after Jan. 10 of next year, which according to the schedule seems likely, and President Nicolás Maduro is voted out of office, his vice president, Aristóbulo Istúriz, would complete his term. Has the ruling government effectively shut down the efforts to remove Maduro from office? What steps can the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable, or MUD, take now in order to achieve their goal of removing Maduro and his party from office? Would an Istúriz administration be able to better address Venezuela’s devastating economic and humanitarian crisis?

John F. Maisto, member of the Advisor board and former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, Nicaragua and the Organization of American States: "In spite of the CNE’s (deliberately) delayed decision, the referendum-schedule issue for 2016 is not over. Allowing it to happen in compliance with electoral rules and the Venezuelan Constitution—as called for by professors at the Central University of Venezuela—would require political will by the Maduro government, which is not likely. However, a constellation of events could force a referendum—an economic collapse close to happening that includes international financial isolation and inability to service debt, triple-digit inflation, bank system collapse, hunger and a breakdown of food distribution, and inability to maintain a hospital system, along with a lack of medicines. These could trigger violent reaction amid ongoing political pressures from the united opposition, students and civic groups. The key unknown here continues to be the Venezuelan military, now charged with proving food distribution and other services. The issue: could the military find it necessary to guide a political solution/referendum as it seeks to preserve a legal and constitutional way out of the chaos? Unrelenting international pressure for an electoral solution/referendum led by South American leaders, Mercosur, the OAS, three presidents (Zapatero, Fernandez, Torrijos) and other concerned governments, the United States and the Europeans can help; Vatican diplomacy could be crucial. However, the solution can only come from the Venezuelans themselves. Their Constitution, institutions and political leaders still have the ability to resolve the crisis democratically this year. (Another unknown is still-required local elections this year.) Kicking everything to 2017 means lost opportunity, more humanitarian crisis and deeper chaos."

George Ciccariello-Maher, associate professor of politics and global studies at Drexel University: "Venezuela’s opposition is noisily complaining that Nicolás Maduro’s government is delaying their attempts to recall him, but it was the opposition that dragged its feet to begin with. After a decisive victory in December’s National Assembly elections--confirming yet again that Venezuelan elections are free and fair--we might have expected the opposition to move quickly to begin the recall process (a right they enjoy thanks to Chávez). But instead, the perpetually fragmented opposition couldn’t even agree on the recall, delaying the process by several months. The recall procedure has since unfolded along a timeline similar to that of the failed 2004 recall referendum, and opposition complaints are to be expected but ring hollow. And for an opposition that crows loudly about having decisively captured the majority, they are in quite a hurry. It’s almost as though they realize that hundreds of thousands didn’t so much vote for the opposition as they voted against the government. Votes easily won are votes just as easily lost, and most polls confirm that Venezuela’s opposition is not gaining the popularity that Maduro is losing. With no policy proposals that do not reek of the neoliberal brutality of the past, the opposition offers no path out of the crisis. If Vice President Aristóbulo Istúriz takes over, however, he might enjoy some advantages: a longtime revolutionary with unquestioned legitimacy, Istúriz also has practical experience putting radical democracy to work on the ground. He might be able to hold the ship steady while empowering those revolutionary grassroots communes that are struggling to make Venezuela self-sufficient beyond the booms and busts of oil."

Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue: "It is baffling to me how Venezuela’s opposition coalition can believe the Chavista government will agree to a recall referendum this year. Why would a deeply unpopular government agree to a referendum that it will lose, and then have to face a presidential election that will almost surely leave the government in the hands of their hated rivals? True, the opposition which holds a huge majority in parliament is politically stronger than it has ever been since Chávez became president in 1999. But the government has shown it can keep parliament bottled up, unable to make any changes in law or policy. Why then would it agree to commit political suicide by referendum? Would international pressure make a difference? Latin American nations have shown no interest in any regional effort to encourage the Venezuelan government to change course and allow a recall vote—and the United States will not act on its own. At this point, it would take a military coup or popular uprising to bring about a new election and dismantle the Chavista government. Dialogue, although hardly a sure bet, now offers the only path toward a constitutional resolution of Venezuela’s confrontational politics and economic desperation. The two sides are miles apart both in their diagnoses of Venezuela’s problems and how to resolve them. Each blames the other for the national crisis. Neither seems ready, even minimally, to cooperate with the other. Political demands by either side will almost surely derail negotiations. The country’s economic hardships and its food and medicine shortages, which amount to a humanitarian emergency, are probably the best place for the mutually distrustful government and opposition to start talking. Discussion of the far more sensitive political issues might be better postponed until the talks have produced some visible progress—although it will be extremely difficult to gain consensus among different opposition groups on this point. The most important role for international community is to use its influence to convince the opposition and government to pursue a measured, realistic set of goals in the forthcoming negotiations."

Gustavo Roosen, member of the Advisor board and president of IESA in Caracas: "The latest surveys indicate that 93 percent of the Venezuelan population believes that the country is in a poor or very poor situation. More than 65 percent have indicated their preference to remove President Nicolás Maduro in 2016. The PSUV party and Maduro’s government have sequestered all constitutional powers, except for the National Assembly after the opposition’s resounding victory of Dec. 6. This sequestration has rendered the Assembly’s political performance inconsequential. The ruling party is opposing the referendum and is obstructing the regional elections that should constitutionally be held at the end of 2016. All indications are that under the guidance of Cuba, the PSUV is moving toward a nondemocratic solution. The MUD opposition coalition faces a critical challenge to reinstating the democratic process for which it has called for a massive demonstration of support on Sept. 1. The leaders of MUD have to be extremely careful in channeling the discontent, given the repression that has occurred and the political prisoners that have been detained as a consequence of prior public demonstrations over the last three years. This will be a critical opportunity to show the military and the world that Venezuelans strongly support democratic solutions that include a constitutional referendum this year, which will result in a new presidential election. This action should be the opposition’s only focus and its priority."

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