Global Trends & Future Scenarios

Inter-American Development Bank

On July 6, the Dialogue and the Inter-American Development Bank launched the Global Trends & Future Scenarios Database of Reports, the result of the organizations’ efforts to formulate effective, forward-looking strategies to meet future challenges and opportunities. This new resource is a searchable online registry that will provide governments, corporations, universities, and think tanks with access to vital information and analyses on trends that affect Latin America and the Caribbean and other regions of the world.

Luis Alberto Moreno, president of the Inter-American Development Bank, introduced the database by explaining how it will be a useful resource for anticipating global challenges in the coming decades. The database’s 800 publications include analyses of trends not only in Latin America, but also in regions and countries around the world, and look at least ten years into the future. Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, discussed how the Global Trends & Future Scenarios Database is indispensable to the Dialogue’s work across its five broad thematic priorities – Rule of Law; China and Latin America; Education; Energy, Climate Change and Extractive Industries; and Migration, Remittances, and Development . Shifter thanked Dialogue senior fellow Sergio Bitar for articulating the need for and shaping the creation of the database. Bitar, a Dialogue member nearly since its founding, was the driving force behind the creation of the Global Trends & Future Scenarios Database of Reports.

Database LogoFollowing Shifter, Bitar announced, “we present today the most extensive database of reports on global trends and future scenarios available to date.” He explained that, with its rich repository of publically available information the database has the potential to offer new approaches that can combat global uncertainty. Bitar then demonstrated the utility and functionality of the database with a guided presentation of the website. The publications are organized into nine categories: Climate Change; Demography, Urbanization and Migration; Economics; Education; Global and Internal Governance; Health; Infrastructure; Natural Resources; and Technological Innovation. Searches for these publications can be filtered by keyword, issue, region, country, year published, author, and institution.

Moisés Naím, distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a Dialogue member, followed Bitar’s demonstration by affirming how the database would be useful to him and other policymakers. He asserted that, while expert reports cannot truly predict the future, the Global Trends database offers policy professionals and the general public an opportunity to take a comprehensive look at all forecast reports and make productive comparisons. Each individual report may present a narrow prediction of the future, but when taken together they have the potential to generate more nuanced forecasts. Naím further explained that, as Latin America is the “most volatile region in the world,” its leaders are constantly in a “state of emergency,” which often prohibits them from planning for the long term. Indeed, when Latin American leaders do think ahead, their predictions are often limited to a specific country and lack an analysis of the “big picture.” Naím concluded by identifying the database as a useful mechanism to avoid “reinventing the wheel.” With hundreds of readily-accessible foresight publications, policymakers will no longer have to depend on their own abstractions or reproduce existing publications, but can instead focus on adding value and insight to those that already exist.

Mathew Burrows, director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative, supplemented Naím’s discussion about the practical implications of the new database, adding that he hopes to use the repository to stimulate discussion in political circles. Burrows was one of the early thinkers who articulated the increasing need for a comprehensive look at global trends and foresights. He noted that, although countries tend to disagree on short-term foreign policy, policymakers are typically receptive to discussing long-term outlooks of the future, which tend to foresee greater cooperation. Burrows reminded the audience, however, that this “far off” future is happening increasingly fast, and decision makers consequently must prepare themselves to respond to such future scenarios.

As the speakers highlighted, the Global Trends and Future Scenarios database provides policy professionals, decision makers, and the public with a unique opportunity to anticipate some of the greatest challenges and opportunities that face the world. The Dialogue and Inter-American Development Bank hope that this database will be used to catalyze perceptive responses and drive productive debate.

Video

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MPrHaXaq4Y&feature=youtu.be[/embed]

Downloads


Related Links