After health care, what's next for Obama?

By Michael Shifter
El Colombiano, April 8, 2010

Una versión de este articulo en español está disponible aquí.

No one thought it would be easy to get health care reform through the US Congress.  But few anticipated it would be as complicated as it proved to be. 
 
Barack Obama's presidency would have been crippled had he failed to pass his highest domestic policy priority.   With this victory, other issues on the agenda become possible.  But until the US mid-term elections in early November, Obama is likely to move cautiously.  The health measure, after all, is not too popular, and with unemployment still at nearly 10 percent, there is widespread anxiety in the country.   
 
Still, with health care reform approved, Obama is in a stronger position to prepare the ground and carry out the necessary policy work for other legislation in 2011.  Immigration reform is among Obama's other priorities.  Although it is unrealistic to expect any change in 2010, progress could well be made next year, especially if the employment picture improves.  Last month, two senators -- a Democrat and Republican -- outlined a framework for reform, including greater border security, a path towards citizenship for undocumented workers, and guest worker programs. 
 
After the bitter battle over health care there may not be much appetite for another potentially divisive fight on immigration.   Anti-immigrant sentiment, though not a majority view, is intensely passionate.  But Hispanics, an increasingly powerful constituency, are pushing very hard for reform.  Without immigration in 2010 Hispanics will be disappointed with Obama but will still vote.  In 2012, however, when Obama is up for reelection, if no progress has been made on this issue, Hispanics may well stay home.  Obama cannot afford that. 
 
On the trade issue the political pressure in the US is not as great as immigration.  And although nothing will happen before the Congressional elections, there may be some movement on pending free trade agreements in 2011.  For several reasons the outlook is brighter than it was a few months ago.  
 
First, with health care reform passed, Obama's liberal base -- unions included -- is more convinced about the administration's commitment to basic social protection.  This will help allay concerns about the negative effects of free trade deals on unprotected US workers.  Obama will have more political room to press for trade deals.
 
Second, if Obama is now going to focus more on the economy, and stimulating US exports – as he signaled in a surprise reference in his State of the Union address in January -- getting pending free trade agreements approved could well be part of such a strategy.  Having health care through makes this task politically easier. 
 
Finally, the decision of Colombia’s Constitutional Court on Uribe's reelection will facilitate more serious consideration of the pending free trade agreement. Had Uribe been able to run for another term, his critics in Washington would have been strengthened and it would be tougher to approve the deal.  Although there is no guarantee of its passage even with a new Colombian president in August, the possibilities are greater.  An improved human rights situation in Colombia would also help. 

With an uncertain US economy, it is hard to predict what will now happen with Washington’s agenda.   But getting health care reform through Congress at least lessened growing doubts whether the US political system could accomplish anything.