What Issues Will Drive U.S.-Latin American Relations Next Year?

By Arturo Valenzuela, Peter Hakim, Andrés Rozental and Roger Noriega
December 24, 2009

Originally published in the "Annual Predictions Survey 2010" of the Dialogue's daily Latin America Advisor

Q: According to a Gallup Poll conducted last summer, Latin Americans' perceptions of U.S. leadership improved dramatically this year as President Barack Obama took office. Despite general public goodwill, however, the Obama administration has faced sharp criticism over the handling of the coup in Honduras and a military agreement between the United States and Colombia that alienated some countries in South America. What issues will drive U.S.-Latin American relations in the coming year? Where should the Obama administration focus its efforts in Latin America and the Caribbean?

A: Arturo A. Valenzuela, U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs: "We have an important and overarching interest we share with people all over the region—the success of stable, safe, democratically governed societies whose institutions are able to meet their peoples' needs and expectations. We are pursuing that common goal through enhanced partnerships in three broad, interconnected policy areas: expanding opportunity, enhancing citizen safety, and strengthening democratic governance. High rates of poverty and inequality continue to challenge most countries in the region. Addressing these problems, and preparing people to compete and win in an integrated world, requires a big investment in institutions, people and infrastructure. We support expanded social opportunity as an indispensable element in safe, democratically governed and just societies. That support finds expression in a host of concrete partnerships, such as Pathways to Prosperity, the Microfinance Growth Fund for the Americas, the Inter-American Social Protection Network, and the Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas. Opportunity is key, but so is citizen safety. We are part of networks of partnerships grounded in a commitment to the safety of our citizens and the resilience of our communities—recognizing that the continuum of the region's security concerns are all about safety of human beings. The Merida Initiative in Mexico and Central America is forging unprecedented levels of partnership, trust and results. We are close to launching formally a Caribbean Basin Security Initiative, jointly developed with the Caribbean countries, which reflects this shared commitment. In the Andes, our partnership is helping the Colombian people achieve lasting and just peace. Improving democratic governance is also a necessary goal, and there must be a collective will to safeguard democratic stability in the region. Defending core, shared democratic values is more than meeting challenges in Honduras and Cuba. It means supporting press freedoms and helping build responsive judicial, law enforcement, and penal institutions essential to advancing the rule of law. This administration is doing this in many ways with regional partners. 2010 is the bicentennial of Chile, Mexico, Colombia and Argentina. It is a fitting moment to reflect on two centuries of accomplishments, to celebrate our democratic and diverse societies, and focus on the challenges ahead."

A: Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president of the Inter-American Dialogue: "My Latin America priorities for the Obama Administration concern:

• U.S. policy in Honduras, intended to demonstrate a commitment to multilateralism, has alienated many countries. The U.S. needs to find a formula that would allow for recognition of the newly elected Honduran government and improve how the hemisphere’s governments defend democracy.

• Most importantly, the U.S. should renew attention to regional economic relations. Washington has been neglecting economic issues—including the unratified Colombia and Panama trade agreements, problems related to trade preferences, energy challenges, and replenishment of Inter-American Development Bank resources. What Latin America most needs from the U.S. is access to markets and technology.

• Disheartened by the stalled trade pact, Colombia needs reassurance of U.S. support as it battles guerrillas and traffickers, and faces Venezuela’s threats. The Administration must also encourage more Colombia to do more to control human rights abuses.

• Responding to Venezuela requires a balancing act. Confrontation with Hugo Chavez is counterproductive, but the U.S. cannot simply ignore Chavez’s violations of democracy, interventions in other countries, and his ties to Iran.

• Get relations with Brazil back on track. The challenge is to accept and work through policy disagreements and divergent approaches, and cooperate where possible.

• Mexico’s problems, including its severe economic downturn and relentless crime and violence, have no ready fix. The U.S. can help by reforming immigration, rethinking its drug policies, and opening the border to Mexican trucks. The U.S. also has to be concerned about deteriorating security in Central America and the Caribbean.

• Finally, sustain the promising, step-by-step re-engaging Cuba."

A: Andrés Rozental, member of the Advisor board, president of Rozental & Asociados in Mexico City and member of the Inter-American Dialogue: "As often happens at the beginning of an administration in Washington, the Obama team hit the ground running on a whole series of foreign policy issues, but Latin America has been left behind amidst the more immediate pressures of Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East conflict, Iran's nuclear ambitions, etc. It took too long for the most senior State Department official who deals with the hemisphere to be sworn in and Senate approval of the new U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is still pending. Mexico however was an exception during 2009, with a flurry of high-level visits and priority attention being given to the increasing violence, drug trafficking and the fight against organized crime. The crisis in Honduras continues to be an example of U.S. foreign policy gone awry, with increasing disarray among the hemisphere's governments as to what to do about it. The U.S. has tried to accommodate too many opposing positions regarding Honduras and after having been congratulated for joining the rest of the OAS membership in condemning the coup and insisting on President Zelaya's restitution to power, Washington now has a confusing and ambiguous policy which satisfies no one. Expectations in Latin America for a new, more respectful relationship were very high when the Obama administration took office, but much remains to be accomplished. From an outsider's perspective there is still no publicly announced coherent strategy in Washington for its dealings with the region. In the meantime, the increasing disconnect between a growing number of hemispheric governments and the U.S. threatens to complicate things even further, with almost a dozen of the region's rulers openly antagonistic to Washington."

A: Roger Noriega, managing director of Vision Americas LLC in Washington and former U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs: "The recent and upcoming elections in the region (in Brazil, Uruguay, Honduras and Chile, for example) demonstrate that, in spite of the left-wing bombast from a couple of troubled states, most people in the region see institutionalized democracy as the best means of ensuring accountable government. President Obama's new Latin American assistant secretary, Arturo Valenzuela, is a learned, sensitive professional who will move quickly to flesh out the new administration's commitment to renewed respectful dialogue. Already, the denunciations from Havana, the saber-rattling from Caracas, and the nasty rhetoric from Buenos Aires and La Paz prove that some in the region aren't interested in reasonable dialogue, and they have a disproportionate influence on the tone in the region. Assistant Secretary Valenzuela may also find it harder to deliver on increased economic assistance that some see as a measure of U.S. engagement. And he is disadvantaged by the president's unwillingness to buck U.S. labor unions to advance the Colombia free trade agreement just as that anti-drug ally is feeling economic and military heat from Venezuela. I believe that the government must be prepared for a crisis emerging from Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez is struggling to deal with a public security, infrastructure and banking crises of his own making. His dangerous ties to Iran and his war-footing toward Colombia demands closer scrutiny and preparedness from the United States. The myth that Raul Castro could preside over a smooth transition also has been busted, so a crisis there in the near term will require strong, principled U.S. leadership."

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