Chile’s 2009 Presidential Elections with Genaro Arriagada

By Stephanie Majerowicz
July 9, 2009

Listen to an audio recording of the event here.

Despite appearances, the Chilean political system faces a crucial challenge in the upcoming elections as it attempts to revitalize itself after twenty years of Concertación rule, said former Chilean minister of the presidency Genaro Arriagada, who spoke at the Dialogue on July 9.

Chilean elections—scheduled for December 13, 2009—will determine who will take over after Bachelet’s stunningly successful presidency. As of today, Concertación candidate and former president Eduardo Frei is trailing the center-right opposition candidate Sebastian Piñera, of the Coalition for Change party—but only by a small margin.

According to Arriagada, the political climate in Chile is dominated by a contradiction between the uncommonly popular incumbent president credited with strong progress on the one hand, and the desire on the part of the electorate for change, on the other.

By most accounts, Chile is doing remarkably well in a region otherwise plagued by economic and political instability. Still, Chileans are clamoring for change. “The Concertación worked well for twenty years, but now the people are tired of the same old politics.”

So far, however, the opposition has not been capable of capitalizing on the electorate’s call for change. “With President Bachelet enjoying 70 percent approval ratings, it is not practical to come off too strongly in opposition to the incumbent,” said Arriagada, adding that, “the Right has not been capable of producing a new and bold agenda.”

But if the elections are not being decided on significant party platform differences, what will determine the outcome?

Surprisingly, a lot may depend on the relatively unknown third party candidate, Marco Enríquez Ominami. Seeking to distance himself from traditional politics of the Concertación—without actually crossing over to the Right—Enríquez has emerged as the candidate of choice for those hoping to make a vote of “protest light.” 

This “protest light,” however, could become a serious threat to both Frei and Piñera. By appropriating the mantel of “change,” as a fresh face amidst two experienced politicians, Enríquez has deprived the opposition of this natural base of support. And by providing the disenchanted Concertación voters with an alternative option to the right, he has reached a 13 percent polling number that, if sustainable, could prove to be a real problem for Frei.

“Let us vote with our hearts in the first round for Marco Enríquez to send a message to the traditional politicians, and in the second round we will vote with our heads for Eduardo Frei,” said Arriagada, expressing the mind-set of Enriquez supporters.

Much like the baking of a soufflé, quipped Arriagada, the impact that Marco Enríquez will have on the Chilean elections will ultimately depend on timing. If by election day Enríquez still enjoys strong support among voters, he could put a serious dent in Frei’s bid for presidential election. And while it is unlikely that Enriquez would surpass Frei, he could take enough Concertación voters to create a gap impossible to bridge in the second round. On the other hand, if his support wanes in the coming months, he is unlikely to cause much harm and the race will remain tight between the two top contenders.

It all depends on how Marco Enríquez’ candidacy evolves in the coming months and—like the delicate timing evoked in Arriagada’s “soufflé” analogy—a lot could be determined by the first round of voting.