While Chile and Peru have largely avoided the political instability and economic uncertainty currently faced by other Latin American countries, both are entering electoral cycles that will influence the countries’ outlook. During a breakfast discussion at the Dialogue on May 20th, Carlos Basombrío, former vice minister of the interior of Peru, and Genaro Arriagada, former minister of the presidency of Chile, discussed recent development and future prospects for their respective countries.
Basombrío discussed the outcome of former president Alberto Fujimori’s trial for human right abuses, in which he was found guilty of all charges and sentenced to 25 years in prison. Basombrío argued that the trial was an important political event, marking the end of a cycle of impunity for Fujimori since he fled to Japan in 2000. While Fujimori supporters waged a big campaign of support during the trial, mobilization has since diminished and about 75 percent of Peruvians support the court’s decision.
The outcome of the trial will have an impact on Peru’s 2011 presidential election, as one of the current candidates, Keiko Fujimori, is former president Fujimori’s daughter and has benefited electorally from his continued support. While the American press has portrayed a resurgence of the Sendero Luminoso guerrillas, Basombrío argued that the group’s activities are limited and the Peruvian military is making progress against them. With regard to Peru’s international relations, Basombrío argued that the García government has an “obsession” with trade and investment, where its relationships with Brazil and with Chile are critical.
Basombrío warned it was premature to analyze the 2011
presidential elections, but that the key candidates would likely be
Keiko Fujimori, former member of Congress Lourdes Flores, Lima mayor
Luis Castañeda, and former president Alejandro Toledo. He argued that the December elections will begin a new period of
political realignment, as voters seem to be leaning towards the
center-right Alianza coalition and its presidential candidate,
Sebastián Piñera.
While a corruption scandal has not gained traction,
Arriagada thought that Piñera will face real competition from former
president Eduardo Frei of the Concertación as well as the independent
Marco Enríquez-Ominami. Arriagada predicted that the election would
take two rounds to decide, with Piñera edging out Frei for the
presidency. A win by the right would not threaten Chilean democracy,
Arriagada said, but the two ruling coalitions would likely be
restructured.
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While Chile and Peru have largely avoided the political instability and economic uncertainty currently faced by other Latin American countries, both are entering electoral cycles that will influence the countries’ outlook. During a breakfast discussion at the Dialogue on May 20th, Carlos Basombrío, former vice minister of the interior of Peru, and Genaro Arriagada, former minister of the presidency of Chile, discussed recent development and future prospects for their respective countries. 