Press Roundtable: Obama's Trip to Mexico and the Summit of the Americas
By Daphne Morrison April 14, 2009
This week President Obama’s attention will turn to the Western Hemisphere. With an official visit to Mexico followed by the Fifth Summit of the Americas, what can Latin America and the Caribbean expect from the new president and what—in turn—can the president expect from the region?
Sidney Weintraub of the Center for Strategic and International Studies joined the Dialogue’s Claudio Loser, Michael Shifter, Dan Erikson and Peter Hakim for a press roundtable discussion on the Summit and Obama’s trip to Mexico on Tuesday, April 14. Hakim led off the discussion and addressed expectations for this Friday’s meeting—when 34 regional leaders will convene in Trinidad and Tobago.
The Western Hemisphere should not expect a breakthrough in U.S.-Latin America relations. “He’s not going to be put the ball in the hole,” Hakim stated, continuing with his golf analogy. But early moves by the Obama administration signal positive change. He pointed to Secretary Clinton’s successful trip to Mexico, the easing of travel and remittance restrictions on Cuban-Americans, and commitments made at the Group of 20 meeting to increase financing to the IMF. Erikson added that Obama’s Cuba announcement makes good on his campaign promise and the region should not expect more changes to be revealed in Trinidad and Tobago. “The Summit is an awkward place to announce Cuba policy,” he said, noting that Cuba is not even a participant.
Turning to Obama’s upcoming trip to Mexico, Weintraub stated that the big issue is narcotics. He praised Secretary Clinton for admitting that the U.S. is complicit in Mexico’s drug problems, but wondered how this would translate into policy. “If they don’t stop the guns and get the money out of it, there’s no point.”
The economy, Weintrub continued, is the second big issue. He explained that the financial crisis has hit Mexico harder than any other country in the region because of its dependence on revenue from trade with the United States and on industrial manufacturing products, which make up roughly 80 percent of the economy.
But Claudio Loser—former head of the Western Hemisphere affairs department at the IMF—stressed that the financial crisis has greatly affected the region as a whole. He echoed Hakim’s opinion that the crisis will dominate the Summit agenda. Unfortunately, he explained, because of high debt levels most LAC countries, with the exception of Chile and Peru, will not be able to follow the U.S. lead in offering sizable stimulus packages. Loser cautioned that money derived from the newly buoyed IMF should not be viewed as a panacea. By his calculations, money to the region will amount to little more than 4 percent of regional GDP—a relatively small amount whose efficacy in stimulating growth will be further offset by delays in delivery and decreased capital flows from the private sector.
Several participants asked about the status of the pending free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama. Shifter stated that the agreements will not likely be discussed at the Summit because they are, in essence, bilateral issues. But in addressing a separate question, Shifter pointed out that Colombia can no longer look forward to the favorable treatment it enjoyed under Bush. He argued that Colombia should re-frame this change as an opportunity to renew its relationship with the region—a relationship badly strained by preferential treatment from Washington.
All of the panelists agreed that the U.S.-Latin America relationship will continue to improve. And while it is not likely that Obama will be the harbinger of immediate and sweeping change, small steps—such as closing down Guantanamo—do make a difference. “Symbols are important,” Hakim concluded, “and no one expects deliverables on the table.”
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