Russia Exploits an Opening in Latin America

By Dan Erikson
Latin America Advisor, October 10, 2008

Originally published in Dan Erikson’s monthly “Eye on the Americas” column for the Dialogue's daily Latin America Advisor

WASHINGTON, DC—With the expulsion last month of the US ambassadors to Bolivia and Venezuela, few were surprised to see Washington's relations with Latin America reach a new low. Far more striking is the fact the Russia's Vladimir Putin has taken advantage of receding US influence to step into the breach and actively consolidate Moscow's ties with the region.

The latest flurry of activity began last summer, when an unnamed Russian official ignited a media firestorm by suggesting that Moscow was considering basing nuclear bombers in Cuba. The resulting furor, with its Cold War echoes of the Cuban Missile Crisis, prompted General Norton A. Schwartz, the new Air Force chief of staff, to publicly warn that sending the bombers would cross a "red line in the sand."  Soon thereafter, Hugo Chavez traveled to Moscow to seal a new deal whereby Russia would offer Venezuela a $1 billion line of credit to purchase Russian weaponry.  Vladimir Putin remarked that "Latin America is becoming a noticeable link in the chain of the multipolar world that is forming. We will pay more and more attention to this vector of our economic and foreign policy."

Recent actions by Moscow demonstrate that this is more than just empty rhetoric. Russia has already deployed warships to Venezuela for naval maneuvers later this year.  Russia even sold five civil defense helicopters to Bolivia as the Russian ambassador remarked that the new left-wing governments in the region presented "a favorable opportunity to return." Russia has also re-emerged as a formidable ally of Cuba. Cuba is reported to be deeply in debt to Russia (to the tune of $20 billion owed to the old Soviet Union), but Russia continues to trade and grant credit to the Cuban government. In September 2006, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradlov visited Havana and signed an agreement opening up a $355 million line of credit over ten years. The Russian government has recently stated that its objective is to work with Havana include "to restore traditional relations in all areas of cooperation," which will breathe new life into an alliance that sustained Cuba for much of the Cold War.

Indeed, Russia is renewing ties with Latin America that have been virtually dormant since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow's outreach to the region is by no means confined to Hugo Chavez and his closest allies. In June 2004, Putin made the first-ever visit to Mexico by Russian premier for talks focusing on military sales, and later that year he attended the APEC summit in Chile and then visited Brazil to initiate cooperation in satellite technology and oil exploration. In 2007, the Russian leader visited Guatemala and then promised to cooperate with the country on electricity production, prompting then-President Oscar Berger to describe Putin as "one of the brightest leaders in today's world." Russian arms sales to the region amounted to only $300 million from 1998 to 2001, but they have since escalated dramatically. In 2006, Russia's military sales to Venezuela alone totaled $3 billion (including an eyebrow-raising shipment of 100,000 Kalishnikov assault rifles), and hundreds of millions more were sold to other major Latin American countries. If the pace of military trade continues, Russia's arms sales to Latin America will soon surpass the records set by the Soviet Union.

The strategic interests that are motivating Russia's drive into Latin America are clear.  Russia seeks to reassert itself as a world power, which includes a renewed presence in Latin America, while much of the region wants to diversify its economic partners to reduce its dependence on the United States. None of this favors US influence in the hemisphere, which appears to be in free fall during the Bush Administration's final months in office.

Dan Erikson is Senior Associate of US Policy at the Inter-American Dialogue.