Bolivia will see a series of referendums this summer, calling to question the legitimacy of President Evo Morales and the opposition demand for regional autonomy. Two votes took place in the spring, two more will be held on June 22, and on August 10, voters will cast their ballots in a recall referendum for Morales, Vice President García-Linera and each of the departmental prefects.
Many experts see the hectic voting as representative of Bolivia’s current instability and the weakness of the Morales’ administration, which has faced political, ethnic, and regional conflict throughout its short tenure. George Gray Molina, director of the United Nations Development Programme in Bolivia, disagrees, however. “Historically, Bolivia has always had a weak state,” he said at an Inter-American Dialogue meeting on June 4, adding that civil society and other institutions often fill those gaps in state effectiveness. He diagnosed the country’s issues as structural rather than a result of Evo Morales or the events of the past six months.
Gray Molina pointed out that indigenous justice and regional autonomy, two controversial issues in the recently concluded constitutional assembly, are not novel concepts in Bolivia. Provinces like Beni, Pando, and parts of Santa Cruz have sought self-governance for years and will likely continue to have significant independence.
The greater problem, according to Gray Molina, is that none of the current referendums are constitutional. Both the regional referendums and estatutos autonómicos (autonomy laws) are illegal under the existing constitution. He urged Bolivians to act lawfully and called for the creation of a roadmap to legalize the constituent assembly and the constitutional tribunal. Gray Molina acknowledged, however, that this may be a “long and winding road.”
Bolivia has deep regional and ethnic conflicts, yet Gray Molina praised
the state for avoiding civil war again and again. This predisposition,
he believes, will help to prevent violence in the current conflict.
Gray Molina sees a gradual, procedural solution as the optimal, and
most likely, outcome. The best results of the referendums, said Gray
Molina, would be for nothing to change, and for major stakeholders to
“agree to disagree.”
But Eduardo Gamarra, a professor of political science at Florida
International University who provided commentary on Gray Molina’s
remarks, deemed it unlikely they would “agree to disagree”.
“I think we are seeing a very accelerated process of deinstitutionalization, like nothing I’ve seen before,” said Gamarra, stressing that Bolivians had become accustomed to acting outside the law and that the majority do not consider the constitution legitimate. “It’s understood that everybody violates the law,” Gamarra explained. “Nobody really cares about the written documents.”
Gamarra emphasized that the street-based politics—mass mobilizations, referendums, and protests—are considered more valid in Bolivia than the official laws. He pointed to the collapse of traditional political parties and a rejection of all pre-2005 Bolivian political institutions as the most worrisome developments.
In contrast to Gray Molina, who sees the current crisis as an outcome of generations of instability, Gamarra blames Morales and his Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party for fueling the conflict. “Over the past two years, deinstitutionalization has been an objective, not a consequence, for Morales and MAS,” said Gamarra.
Although mediators have not played a large role in the conflict up until this point, Gray Molina and Gamarra agree that the Catholic Church could serve as an intermediary, setting the stage for discussion.
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Bolivia will see a series of referendums this summer, calling to question the legitimacy of President Evo Morales and the opposition demand for regional autonomy. Two votes took place in the spring, two more will be held on June 22, and on August 10, voters will cast their ballots in a recall referendum for Morales, Vice President García-Linera and each of the departmental prefects. 
however, that this may be a “long and winding road.” 