The New Old Guard: Making Sense of Post-Fidel Cuba

By Elisabeth Burgess for the Dialogue's Latin America Advisor
April 18, 2008

Analysts: Cuba's Reforms Could Breed New Social Tensions

WASHINGTON, DC—A swath of small-scale reforms implemented this year by Cuba's new president, Raul Castro, have the potential to significantly alter the quality of life of many Cubans, but may also increase inequality, leading to new social tensions and maybe even rising crime and violence, a group of experts said on Friday, April 18.

The reforms—letting Cubans purchase DVD players, get a cell phone, and stay in hotels historically limited to foreigners, among others—have put most islanders in a state of "euphoria," Katrin Hansing, associate director of Florida International University's Cuban Research Institute (CRI), told an audience at an event co-sponsored by CRI and the Inter-American Dialogue.

People aren't even talking about former President Fidel Castro anymore, focusing instead on the new wave of changes, said Hansing, a South African anthropologist who used to live in Cuba and just returned to the United States from a week-long trip to the Communist island. Some intellectuals, and those with access to hard currency, see the reforms as "cosmetic," while still others—especially young Cubans—view them with "cynicism" and "disaffection" absent meaningful political change. But most Cubans are feeling "free" these days, she said.

However, most of the population can't afford the once-prohibited consumer goods, Hansing explained. In general, only Cubans who receive remittances from abroad, work in joint state-private companies, run small businesses, or trade in the black market will have the hard currency to buy a cell phone or DVD player. These Cubans are certainly significant, but they are not a majority, she said. The rest of the population will remain in want of their neighbors' new and visible possessions, creating social tensions, and increasing violence and crime.

"After five decades, actually, maybe the Cuban people will become the government’s greatest challenge for the first time," Hansing said.

Phil Peters, vice president of the Virginia-based Lexington Institute and author of The Cuban Triangle blog, disagreed.

"Insipient instability? Frankly I don't see it," Peters said. "I don't see signs that this will blow up if [the government does not] satisfy demands."

He said the reforms are clearly in an early stage, and there is still a large "gap" between the government's goals and what has been embarked upon so far. Peters said that Raul accepts a number of reforms that would lead to some people earning more than others, such as lifting restrictions on foreign companies making hard currency payments to workers and raising the salary ceiling for public employees.

William LeoGrande, dean of American University's School of Public Affairs, agreed with Hansing that Raul's new consumer reforms will be socially disruptive because there will be "winners and losers." But the government understands this and has been careful to rely on the old guard of the Communist Party for institutional support, LeoGrande said. The changes are "designed to be politically popular," he explained. When it comes time to implement more controversial changes, it is important to have these old guard "conservative" party members in control.

"When debating controversial issues, you want conservatives inside the tent, rather than outside," LeoGrande said.

Originally published on April 21, 2008 in the Dialogue's daily Latin America Advisor.